Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin tumbled 2% on Tuesday, reaching an intraday low of $62,684 before rebounding near $63,660.
- The sharp price decline wiped out $134 million in Bitcoin longs and $515 million across crypto.
- Fed policy cues from Kevin Warsh and PCE data could push bitcoin toward $70,000 or down to $58,000.
Bitcoin Pulls Back Ahead of Pivotal Macro Week
A day after near-flat price action, bitcoin tumbled Tuesday, briefly slipping below $63,000 as it braced for the summer’s most event-heavy week. Market data show that bitcoin, which traded near $65,000 Monday afternoon, initially dipped to just over $63,000. It fluctuated between $63,000 and $63,500 until around 9 a.m. EST, when another sell-off drove it to an intraday low of $62,684.
Although a relief rally helped the cryptocurrency recover most of its losses, it hit resistance shortly after reclaiming $64,000. As of 2:37 p.m. EST, bitcoin was trading near $63,660—down nearly 2% for the day. The dip brought its monthly losses to 4% and dragged its market capitalization down to $1.277 trillion.
In the derivatives market, bitcoin’s sharp drop triggered $134 million in leveraged long liquidations, a steep jump from the $30 million wiped out on Monday. Meanwhile, nearly $22 million in short positions was liquidated, pushing bitcoin-related liquidations past $156 million. Across the broader crypto market, long liquidations totalled $515 million, compared with $98 million in short liquidations.
Despite logging marginal losses, bitcoin remains on course to close July with net gains, a reversal from June, when it closed with double-digit losses. However, while bitcoin has seemingly weathered storms including Middle East tensions, some experts believe the last week of July could determine how it progresses through much of the second half of 2026.
Experts point to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, and earnings reports from Wall Street giants such as Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon as factors likely to determine the cryptocurrency’s direction. One expert, Mike McCluskey, co-founder of TX and a former Fidelity executive, said the press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will provide key clues for market watchers.
“What moves markets is Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 ET, specifically how he characterizes the inflation picture and whether his language leaves any door open for easing later this year,” McCluskey said. “He has been consistently hawkish since taking office in May, and he has deliberately limited forward guidance in a way that makes each press conference the actual policy signal rather than the statement.”
McCluskey added that July 30 compounds the difficulty because that is when second-quarter GDP, core PCE, and the Bank of England rate decision all arrive. For him, the constructive scenario is GDP near the 2.3% consensus and core PCE easing from May’s 3.4% year-over-year mark. That combination, McCluskey said, gives the Fed cover to hold without sounding alarmed and restores some of the disinflation narrative that was dismantled in June.
However, if either number surprises to the upside, the hawkish read from Wednesday gets reinforced rather than softened.
For bitcoin, a Fed hold decision with a dovish tone, strong AI capital expenditure guidance, and constructive PCE data could build the $65,000 level into a genuine attempt at $68,000 to $70,000 through August.
“A hike, or a hold with hawkish language alongside earnings disappointments, and the $58,000 to $60,000 range comes back into view quickly,” McCluskey added. “The market has been patient for six weeks. This is the week it finds out if that patience was warranted.”
