Key Takeaways
- Glassnode says a bitcoin valuation measure has moved above its one-year average.
- The same crossover appeared near the start of the 2019 and 2023 bull markets.
- Altcoin holders remain largely in losses despite a recent rally.
Bitcoin Signal Recalls Earlier Bull Markets
Bitcoin has regained a momentum threshold that appeared near the start of its 2019 and 2023 bull markets, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. In a Sept. 22 post, the firm showed bitcoin’s market value to realized value ratio moving back above its 365-day average after a prolonged stretch below it.
The ratio, known as MVRV, compares bitcoin’s market value with the estimated value of coins based on when they last moved. Crossing its annual average means the ratio has risen above its own recent trend. Glassnode wrote:
“This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.”
Both earlier crossings followed major declines, but their subsequent price paths differed. Bitcoin rallied sharply in 2019 before giving back part of its gains, while its 2023 recovery continued into 2024. That price history gives the latest crossover its appeal for bulls without making either earlier path a forecast for 2026.
The Rally Still Faces a Demand Test
The signal arrived as bitcoin recovered from this year’s lows and briefly reclaimed $87,000 this week for the first time since January. Its price advance makes the crossover more relevant to traders, but the indicator measures a change in the relationship between market value and holders’ estimated cost basis. It does not measure how much buying will potentially follow.
Demand through U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has strengthened alongside the rally. The funds drew nearly $999 million in net inflows on Sept. 21, their largest single-day total of 2026. Fund flows offer a separate measure of buying activity from Glassnode’s onchain momentum signal.
Potential selling also sits near recent prices. An estimated 1.07 million BTC was acquired between $83,000 and $86,000, placing some holders near their purchase prices as bitcoin revisits that range. The largest concentration is around $85,000, and most of the coins belong to long-term holders. Some may sell as they return to breakeven, creating a test of whether current demand can absorb that supply.
Options traders have built positions near higher price levels, potentially affecting bitcoin’s next move. In its Sept. 23 market analysis, Glassnode identified $95,000 to $97,000 as the first major test if the rally continues, while describing profit-taking so far as relatively light.
Altcoin Holders Remain in Losses
Bitcoin’s improving signal has not erased losses across the wider crypto market. In a separate Sept. 22 post, Glassnode reported that less than a quarter of the median tracked altcoin’s supply was in profit. The measure describes the share of coin supply held above its estimated acquisition cost, rather than a count of individual investors.
That weak profit reading can coexist with rising prices. Glassnode’s Sept. 23 analysis found that 72.5% of tracked altcoins outperformed bitcoin over the preceding week. For holders who bought at higher prices, however, a recent gain may still leave their coins below their purchase cost.
