TLDR
- Grayscale said HYPE looks cheap compared with major fintech and crypto equity peers.
- Grayscale projected Hyperliquid could earn about $1B in 2027.
- HYPE traded near $54, about 29% below its mid-June all-time high.
- Spot HYPE funds posted $8.6M in outflows for a second weekly loss.
- Grayscale cited slower revenue growth and faster token supply growth as key risks.
HYPE traded near $54 after a sharp pullback, even as Grayscale Research said Hyperliquid may still look undervalued against fintech and crypto equity peers.
Grayscale Values HYPE Through Earnings Per Token
Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl used an “earnings per token” model to assess Hyperliquid. The approach adapts earnings-per-share analysis because Hyperliquid issues tokens instead of shares.
Grayscale assumed Hyperliquid could generate about $1 billion in 2027 earnings. The estimate represents roughly 20% growth from 2025, supported by recovering crypto trading volumes and stablecoin reserve income.
Pandl said Hyperliquid’s Aligned Quote Asset framework could add another revenue stream. Under that setup, part of stablecoin reserve income would flow directly to the protocol.
Grayscale projected HYPE circulating supply between 270 million and 310 million tokens by late 2027. That range would imply earnings of about $3.25 to $3.75 per token.
At a HYPE price near $54, Grayscale estimated a forward multiple of roughly 15 to 18 times. The firm said, “Despite the gains in Hyperliquid’s HYPE token this year, it still looks cheap compared to fintech equities.”
HYPE Compares Below Most Fintech Peers
Grayscale compared HYPE with listed fintech and crypto companies, including Circle, Coinbase, Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and PayPal. The analysis placed HYPE below most peers on a 2027 forward earnings basis.
Circle traded near 40 times projected 2027 earnings, while Coinbase stood near 36 times. Robinhood traded around 35 times, and Interactive Brokers held near 29 times.
HYPE sat near the lower end of the peer group, above only PayPal’s roughly 10 times multiple. Grayscale said Hyperliquid’s expected earnings growth may support a higher valuation than its current level.
The firm also pointed to faster expected growth compared with the median peer group. However, the forecast depends on Hyperliquid reaching revenue and earnings targets over the next two years.
Pandl cited two main risks to the valuation case. Network revenue could grow slower than expected, while token supply could increase faster than projected.
Core contributors have been unlocking about 550,000 HYPE per month. Grayscale modeled a wider range that includes supply growth up to five times that monthly rate.
HYPE Price Faces Near-Term Pressure
The valuation note came during a weaker period for HYPE price action. The token fell more than 13% over the past month and traded about 29% below its mid-June record high.
Institutional activity also pressured sentiment through July. Multicoin Capital and Paradigm unstaked around $291 million in HYPE last week, adding attention to possible supply movement.
Spot HYPE funds recorded $8.6 million in outflows last week. That marked their second consecutive weekly loss, while assets fell 18% from their July 10 peak.
Source: X
A separate technical view said HYPE is approaching a support confluence area. The view identified a weekly fair value gap between $47 and $54.
The same analysis also pointed to a bullish order block between $38 and $43. The zone overlaps with the 0.382 to 0.5 Fibonacci retracement area.
Technical traders are also watching whether HYPE keeps its higher-high and higher-low structure. A weekly close below the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $34 would weaken that setup.
