TLDR
- Alphabet (GOOGL) stock closed at $334.76 on Oct. 21, down 2% on the day.
- Options data points to a 5% move after the Oct. 28 earnings report.
- GOOGL has beaten the options-implied move in five of its past eight reports.
- Alphabet stock rose after three of the last four reports, based on two-week performance.
- Capex worries remain the main risk, with about $44 billion spent last quarter.
Alphabet (GOOGL) stock closed at $334.76 on Oct. 21, down $5.52, or 2%. The day’s range ran from $330.38 to $337.27. The stock is up about 6% to 7% this year.
Options data compiled by Bloomberg shows traders expect a 5% move after the earnings report on Oct. 28. The report comes after the market close.
Alphabet has topped the options-implied move in five of its past eight reports. That tells you traders have often underestimated this one.
Some of the swings were big. On July 22, the stock fell 12% when options pointed to a 5% move. On April 29, it rose 16% against an implied move of 5%.
Other reports were calmer. On Feb. 4, the stock dropped 1% against an expected 5% move. On Oct. 29, 2025, it gained 12% versus a 6% implied move.
The July 23, 2025 report saw a 6% rise, in line with the 6% expectation. Three older reports fell short of the implied move, including a 0.3% decline in February 2025.
What the Past Reports Show
Looking at two weeks after each report, the picture is mostly positive. Alphabet stock rose 5% after the second quarter of 2026 and 14% after the first quarter.
It fell 9% after the fourth quarter of 2025 and rose 4% after the third quarter of 2025. That is three gains in four tries.
Second-quarter revenue came in at $119 billion. Google advertising made up 68% of that total.
Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to more than $24 billion. The company pointed to enterprise AI solutions and infrastructure as the drivers.
Spending is the other side of the story. Capital expenditures hit about $44 billion in the quarter, with 60% going to servers and 40% to data centers and networking.
Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms plan to spend more than $700 billion combined this year on AI build-out. Investors have cheered the growth, though capex levels have weighed on the stock now and then.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and ASML Holding have already reported earnings. Both spoke of steady demand.
Market cap sits at $4.09 trillion. The 52-week range runs from $251.85 to $408.61, so the stock trades well below its high.
The most recent move came on Oct. 21, when the stock slipped to $334.76. Alphabet reports third-quarter results on Oct. 28 after the close.
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