TLDR
- XRP price tests its 20-week EMA near 1.29–1.30 as traders assess the risk of a weekly breakdown.
- A sustained weekly close below the moving average could expose XRP to further losses toward $1.
- Crypto analyst Ali Charts identifies $1.25 as a potential rebound level amid continued selling pressure.
- XRP faces resistance near its 50-week EMA at $1.52, limiting prospects for a stronger recovery.
- Traders await the weekly candle close to determine whether XRP can defend support or face deeper selling.
XRP price neared $1.30 on Thursday, October 15, testing its 20-week exponential moving average. A weekly close below that line could bring $1 support back into focus. XRP traded around $1.32 earlier before sliding near $1.29. Recent weekly estimates place the moving average at 1.29-1.30, versus about $1.34 earlier this year.
XRP Price Faces a Weekly Closing Test
The 20-week average tracks five months of trading, giving more weight to recent prices. Traders use it to assess medium-term support.
A brief dip below the line does not confirm a weekly breakdown. The weekly close matters more. Repeated closes beneath it would show persistent selling.
The test follows recent XRP weakness. Despite recent spot XRP ETF inflows, XRP has struggled to recover earlier levels. Funds received about $11.3 million over five trading days through October 9, according to fund trackers.
Short-Term Charts Show Further Selling
Thursday’s price action also broke a rising daily trendline. The daily relative strength index approached 35, a reading that shows weak momentum without confirming an immediate recovery.
On X, analyst Ali Charts said XRP could revisit $1.25, the lower edge of a channel on his hourly chart. He identified that area as a possible rebound point, not a confirmed floor.
XRP REBOUND INCOMING!?$XRP appears to be trading inside a parallel channel on the hourly chart.
This structure suggests XRP could still drop toward the lower boundary around $1.25 before seeing a meaningful rebound.
That’s the level I’m watching for a potential buying… pic.twitter.com/Et9Q11p08w
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 15, 2026
Broader market selling has added pressure. Crypto liquidations reached $959 million over 24 hours, mostly from bets on rising prices. Earlier XRP liquidation data showed sellers pressing the token below previous support.
$1 Downside Risk Meets $1.52 Resistance
If XRP closes the week below its 20-week average, traders may turn toward $1. That zone supported prices during an earlier 2026 decline. A drop from $1.30 to $1 would equal roughly 23%.
If support holds, XRP would still face the 50-week exponential moving average near $1.52. Buyers would need to push above that level to improve the weekly trend. The token previously met resistance there after approaching $1.70.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s $1.25 support analysis identifies another level between the current price and $1. It places the broader buying area at 1.25-1.30, which overlaps the weekly support test.
The weekly candle remains unfinished. Its closing position relative to 1.29-1.30 will help determine whether the latest decline leaves XRP above its weekly trend support or shifts attention toward $1.
