TLDR
- Tesla stock jumped 5% Friday after Q3 deliveries beat Wall Street estimates.
- The company delivered 486,532 vehicles, topping the consensus of roughly 461,974.
- Energy storage deployments missed estimates, coming in at 13.7 GWh versus 15.9 GWh expected.
- Jim Cramer said his bullish case for Tesla rests on SpaceX, not delivery numbers.
- Tesla reports Q3 earnings on Oct. 21, with focus on cash flow and Optimus timing.
Tesla stock climbed 5% on Friday. The move came after the company posted stronger than expected delivery numbers for the third quarter.
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3. That beat the company-compiled consensus of 461,974 by about 5%.
Model 3 and Model Y deliveries also came in strong. The figure of 478,237 topped both Tesla’s own consensus and FactSet’s estimate of 435,000.
Total volume still slipped about 2% compared to the same quarter last year. But the beat against estimates was enough to lift the stock.
Not everything in the report was positive. Tesla’s energy business fell short of expectations.
Energy storage deployments reached 13.7 GWh in the quarter. That missed the consensus figure of 15.9 GWh by around 14%.
What Analysts Are Watching
Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch said the delivery beat could support better operating cash flow and gross margins. He also flagged Full Self-Driving as a potential driver of future demand.
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer pointed to the same delivery upside. He also noted the weaker energy storage growth.
Tesla produced 464,391 vehicles during the quarter. That is about 22,000 fewer than it delivered, suggesting the company drew down inventory.
That inventory drawdown could be a positive sign for cash flow. Oppenheimer said it will be watching capital spending and balance sheet pressure closely.
Tesla reports third-quarter financial results on Oct. 21. Investors will be looking for updates on Optimus production timing.
Cramer’s Take Has Nothing to Do With Deliveries
Jim Cramer offered a different reason to like Tesla stock. On CNBC, he said the real growth catalyst is not the car business.
Instead, Cramer pointed to SpaceX. Tesla converted its $2 billion xAI investment into a direct minority stake in SpaceX earlier this year.
That gives Tesla shareholders financial exposure to SpaceX’s operations. Cramer highlighted the company’s expanding compute capacity, which it rents out to customers.
He said SpaceX could see a sharp jump in earnings down the road. That, in his view, would boost Tesla’s balance sheet and share price over time.
Cramer also addressed the delivery beat itself. He said rising gas prices are pushing more drivers toward electric vehicles.
As fuel costs climb, EVs look like a cheaper option to budget-conscious buyers. Cramer said this shift helped push Tesla’s delivery numbers above estimates.
Tesla stock remains down more than 15% since the start of 2026, even after Friday’s gain. Wall Street currently rates the stock Overweight.
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