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TLDR
- Major US indexes closed higher last week, led by the Nasdaq up 1.7%
- Big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America report earnings Tuesday
- CPI data drops Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday — both expected to show slight monthly declines
- AI stocks, particularly Nvidia and Micron, are expected to drive 40% of S&P 500 earnings growth
- Fed remains data-dependent as markets price in one rate hike by December
Wall Street is stepping into one of the busiest weeks of the year. Q2 earnings season officially kicks off, inflation data lands mid-week, and investors are watching closely to see if the AI trade continues to pay off.
The S&P 500 closed Friday up 0.42%, finishing the week 1.2% higher. The Nasdaq gained 1.7% for the week. The Dow was the laggard, ending the week down 0.5%.
Big Banks Lead the Earnings Parade
Tuesday is the first big test. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank all report on the same day. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock follow on Wednesday.
Earnings Season begins the week of July 13, 2026https://t.co/hLn2sKQhEY$NFLX $UNH $C $GS $ASML $TSM $JPM $PGR $BAC $WFC $AEHR $CAG $BLK $RF $USB $GE $FAST $ABT $AA $UAL $TFC $MS $ISRG $JNJ $ERIC $AERO $ELV $FITB $ALV $PNC $STT $MTB $CTAS $ANGO $FBK $FHN $CFG $CNS $EQBK $FNB… pic.twitter.com/iwPvjtaORK
— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) July 10, 2026
Banks have been riding a strong wave. IPO activity and trading volumes have been elevated, and analysts expect another solid round of results from the financial sector.
Later in the week, Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines, and Kinder Morgan report Wednesday. Thursday brings Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Netflix, and UnitedHealth.
The bar is high after a strong Q1. LPL Financial chief equity strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder said margins are “key to potentially keeping up this torrid pace of earnings growth.”
He added that low-teens revenue growth needs to convert into at least double that pace in earnings growth. That puts a lot of pressure on AI to deliver real productivity gains.
Buchbinder said chip companies Nvidia and Micron alone are expected to account for 40% of total S&P 500 earnings growth. AI infrastructure stocks more broadly are expected to contribute around 60%. Outside of tech, only the energy sector is expected to add more than one point of earnings-per-share growth.
Inflation Data Could Move Markets
Two key inflation readings arrive mid-week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday. Economists are forecasting a 0.1% monthly drop after May’s 0.5% increase.
Producer Price Index data comes Wednesday. That is also expected to fall 0.1% month-on-month after a 1.1% gain in May.
On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI is expected at 3.8% and headline PPI at 6.2%. Both would be slower than May’s annual readings of 4.2% and 6.5%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is also expected to show slower yearly growth.
These numbers matter because the Federal Reserve is still trying to hit its 2% inflation target. Markets have priced in one quarter-point rate hike by the December meeting, according to Bloomberg data.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has not given explicit forward guidance. Minutes from the June Fed meeting showed that almost all members were open to holding or easing policy if inflation slows, but almost all were also open to tightening if inflation stays stubborn.
Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn noted that Warsh’s refusal to provide clear guidance means markets are “highly data dependent.”
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rounds out the week on Friday, offering another read on how everyday Americans are feeling about the economy.
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