Then: four Magnificent 7 companies report tonight. Q1 GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index print simultaneously tomorrow morning.
FOMC rate decision — today, April 29
The Federal Open Market Committee releases its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern this afternoon, with Chair Powell’s press conference following at 2:30 p.m. Market expectation is that the rate stays at 3.50–3.75%. What is less certain is the language.
This is not a projections meeting. There is no dot plot, no updated Summary of Economic Projections, which means the statement and Powell’s answers carry the entire interpretive weight for how markets read the Fed’s posture until June.
The committee is navigating simultaneous pressure from both sides of its mandate. Core PCE remains above the 2% target. The Middle East conflict has kept energy prices elevated through the quarter, adding to headline inflation.
At the same time, Q4 2025 GDP was revised down to 0.5%, and the first official Q1 growth read arrives tomorrow morning.
The question Powell will be pressed on: does the committee treat inflation persistence as a reason to hold through the summer, or does evidence of slowing growth begin to shift the balance?
If the statement language acknowledges growth risks without retreating from inflation vigilance, that will be read as a modest dovish tilt. If the tone doubles down on patience, particularly any phrase around inflation remaining “too elevated,” that reinforces the hold-for-longer posture.
Historically, non-projections meetings where the headline decision is pre-priced have produced moves driven entirely by tone.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and all USD-denominated spot and margin pairs.
Q1 GDP, March PCE, and the Employment Cost Index — tomorrow, April 30
Three data releases print simultaneously at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday:
- Q1 2026 GDP Advance Estimate
- March Personal Income and Outlays report (which contains the PCE price index)
- Q1 Employment Cost Index.
Each is significant individually. Together they represent the most complete single-morning picture of the US economy’s current state.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q4 2025 came in at 0.5% annualized real GDP, a print that was revised down significantly through its three estimates.
The Advance Estimate for Q1 will be the market’s first official read on whether that softness was an inflection or continued deterioration. Unlike Q4, Q1 absorbed a period of elevated energy costs and the initial period of tariff regime uncertainty following the IEEPA ruling.
Tomorrow’s number will be framed through whatever lens Powell establishes this afternoon.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The March PCE inflation print is the Fed’s preferred gauge and the one that most directly updates the committee’s internal calculus.
Core PCE has remained above target. March captures the first full month of Middle East-driven energy pass-through reaching consumer prices, alongside the early effect of tariff-related goods price increases.
If the March reading shows re-acceleration, the combination with a weak GDP print produces the policy constraint that markets have been pricing around: growth slowing, inflation not. If PCE moderates, the path forward looks materially different.
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
The ECI measures total compensation costs adjusted for workforce composition, which makes it the Fed’s cleanest structural read on wage pressure, distinct from the more volatile payroll-based measures.
Q4 2025 came in at 0.7% quarterly. An elevated Q1 reading, arriving in the same moment as soft growth and sticky inflation, would be the data configuration most likely to push any rate adjustment beyond the summer.
Traders watching June meeting probability pricing should treat the ECI as potentially the most consequential number in an already consequential morning.
All three data points will be interpreted through the framework established by Powell’s press conference the previous afternoon. That sequencing is what makes today’s Fed communication the interpretive anchor for the rest of the week.
Relevant markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, spot and margin pairs on Kraken Pro.
Four companies that collectively represent a significant share of global equity market capitalization report Q1 2026 earnings this evening. The timing matters: the Fed statement will be absorbed and digested before a single earnings release hits.
The shared question across all four calls is whether AI capital expenditure is being matched by revenue growth at sufficient speed.
Alphabet guided $175–185 billion in 2026 capital expenditure, approximately double 2025 levels, when reporting Q4. Meta’s full-year 2026 capex plan was nearly double its 2025 spend. Microsoft’s Azure growth has become a proxy for enterprise AI spending appetite. Amazon’s AWS commentary adds the infrastructure-as-a-service dimension.
Each management team will face direct analyst questions on monetisation pace against investment scale.
What traders are watching: does the guidance language hold, accelerate, or pull back?
Confident upward guidance across multiple names signals that the AI investment thesis remains intact and that corporate balance sheets are absorbing macro headwinds. Cautious commentary or guidance cuts against an elevated cost backdrop signals something different.
Historically, tech earnings clusters have influenced broader risk appetite, including in digital asset markets.
Apple reports tomorrow evening, completing the picture with services revenue and supply chain commentary on tariff impacts.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and ETH/USD as risk sentiment proxies.
Coinbase Q1 2026 earnings — May 7
Coinbase reports after the close on Thursday, May 7. As the most significant crypto-native listed exchange, Coinbase’s Q1 results provide a direct read on institutional and retail trading volumes during a period of sustained macro volatility.
Trading revenue, subscription and services contributions, and any commentary on stablecoin adoption and on-chain activity are the signals with sector-wide read-through.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) — April employment situation — May 8
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April payrolls at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, May 8.
March added 178,000 jobs following February’s strike-affected decline. Unemployment sits at 4.3%. The April report arrives the morning after Coinbase earnings and is the first employment data the Fed sees after its own meeting and after the Q1 data set.
The ISM Manufacturing employment sub-index has been described as “stubbornly stuck in contraction” as firms hold headcounts under uncertainty. If April payrolls disappoint in that context, the narrative around Fed flexibility sharpens further.
Relevant markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, all rate-sensitive pairs.
Tier 3: Also coming up
Strategy (MSTR) reports Q1 2026 earnings on May 5. The company holds approximately 713,502 BTC under fair-value accounting, meaning price moves flow directly through to reported book value and earnings; the accumulation commentary is the signal to watch.
ISM Manufacturing PMI for April prints May 1 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, providing the first activity survey data post-FOMC and post-GDP.
JOLTS March job openings and ISM Services PMI for April both follow on May 5 and May 6 respectively.
Closing context
Last week, this calendar was preparation. Today, it is execution.
The FOMC statement this afternoon sets the interpretive frame for everything that follows: the GDP, PCE, and ECI data that print tomorrow morning, the tech earnings that bracket both days, and the payrolls report that closes the fortnight on May 8.
Each data point will be read through whatever Powell says in the next few hours.
Structured thinking about the sequence (what each event is, what question it answers, and which scenario it confirms or challenges) is what separates deliberate positioning from reactive noise.
The markets to navigate it are on Kraken Pro.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk.
