TLDR
- Tesla will report third-quarter earnings on October 21 after the market closes, with a call at 5:30 p.m. ET.
- Analysts expect earnings of about $0.45 per share and revenue of $27.94 billion.
- Options traders price in a 7.43% move, above the 5.95% average of the last four reports.
- Tesla shares fell 2.1% to $354.72 on Friday and are down about 21% this year.
- Wall Street’s average price target is $404.87, which implies 14.1% upside.
Tesla is set to report third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, October 21, after the market closes. CEO Elon Musk will hold an earnings call at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Wall Street expects earnings of about $0.45 per share, down 10% from a year ago. Revenue is forecast to fall 0.5% to $27.94 billion.
Shares Under Pressure Before the Report
Tesla stock fell 2.1% to $354.72 on Friday. That brought its weekly decline to about 7.3%.
Shares are down roughly 21% this year, measured against December’s close of $449.72. Investors have pointed to competition in the electric vehicle market, margin pressure and high spending.
The second-generation Roadster was unveiled on Thursday. It showed off thrusters developed by SpaceX and airborne moves, but shares still fell the next day.
Roadster production is targeted for 2028. The original model was first announced in 2017 with a 2020 delivery target.
JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta kept a Hold rating after the unveiling. He noted that Tesla said the Roadster would eventually be its only manually driven vehicle.
What the Numbers Show
Tesla has already reported 486,532 vehicle deliveries for the quarter. That beat expectations but was about 2% lower than a year earlier. The company also reported 13.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage deployments.
Capital spending is expected to be near $7.5 billion for the quarter. A year earlier, it was $2.3 billion.
Free cash flow will show how well Tesla can fund its expansion. Investors will also listen for comments on margins and electric vehicle demand.
Options traders expect a 7.43% move in either direction after the report. The options-implied move shows the size of the expected swing, not whether the stock will rise or fall.
In the past four reports, Tesla’s stock moved an average of 5.95%. Those moves ranged from 2.28% to 14.52%.
Analyst Views and Robotaxi Updates
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco kept a Hold rating with a $400 price target. He said resilient auto demand, high gas prices and full self-driving technology support Tesla.
Percoco said Tesla now has more than 300 Cybercabs in Austin, an eightfold increase in 30 days. The fleet has passed 1 million cumulative unsupervised robotaxi miles, up from about 380,000 at second-quarter earnings.
He was more cautious on Optimus, citing uncertainty over timelines and scale. He also pointed to high spending and cash burn.
Wall Street holds a Moderate Buy consensus on Tesla. That includes 14 Buy ratings, 11 Holds and two Sells.
US regulators are reviewing a petition that says robotaxis exceeded speed limits in school zones. The review covers Model Y and Cybercab vehicles using automated driving.
NHTSA is also investigating Cybercab’s certification against federal safety standards, including rules on traditional driver controls.
Investors are also watching for news on the reported Tesla-SpaceX merger. Results will be released Wednesday after the close.
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