TLDR
- HSBC upgraded Target to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $190 from $125.
- Target stock rose about 2% Wednesday after the upgrade.
- Shares are up 63% year-to-date, with a 51% gain since CEO Michael Fiddelke took over in February.
- Analyst Joe Thomas says growth is coming from foot traffic, not price hikes, a sign the turnaround is working.
- Target’s consensus rating is Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $165.96, about 7% above current levels.
Target stock is on the move this week, and it’s not because of a big product launch or a flashy ad campaign. It’s because one analyst thinks the retailer has finally turned a corner.
HSBC analyst Joe Thomas upgraded Target to Buy from Hold on Wednesday. He also raised his price target to $190 from $125, a jump that signals real confidence in where this company is headed.
Target shares responded immediately. The stock rose about 2% following the news, trading near $157.
That move adds to what’s already been a strong year for Target. Shares are up 63% in 2026 alone. Since Fiddelke stepped into the CEO role in February, the stock has climbed 51%.
Why HSBC Likes the Turnaround
Thomas pointed to something specific in Target’s recent numbers. Second-quarter comparable sales rose 3.8%, and store-originated sales climbed 2.7%. Earnings per share came in roughly 5% ahead of what Wall Street expected.
What matters more than the headline numbers, according to Thomas, is where the growth came from. It’s foot traffic, not higher prices or bigger basket sizes.
That distinction matters. It means people are actually walking into Target stores again, rather than the company simply charging more for the same items.
“This indicates to us that Target is rebuilding customer traffic and that its store base is not being materially cannibalized,” Thomas wrote in his note.
The upgrade lands just a day after Target announced price cuts on nearly 2,000 items across home, apparel, and accessories. The company framed the move as an effort to help families ahead of the holiday shopping season.
That announcement didn’t go over well at first. Target stock actually closed down 1.3% on Tuesday, even as the S&P 500 barely budged.
Thomas didn’t comment directly on the new price cuts in his note. But they build on more than 10,000 price reductions Target has already made over the past year.
The Bigger Turnaround Story
Fiddelke launched a revamped turnaround plan back in March. The goals are straightforward: refresh the product lineup, cut prices where it makes sense, and redesign store layouts.
Investors have bought into the plan, literally. Target stock has risen 32% since the turnaround was unveiled.
Target also raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year when it reported earnings on August 19. The company now expects fiscal 2026 earnings between $8.25 and $9.25 per share, up from a prior range of $7.50 to $8.50.
Not every part of the business is firing yet. Apparel and home categories are still lagging behind other segments.
Still, Thomas noted early progress in children’s clothing and home updates, both areas Target has specifically targeted for a refresh.
Wall Street overall remains a bit more cautious than HSBC. The average rating on Target is a Hold, according to 43 analysts tracked by FactSet, with just 28% rating it a Buy.
Target’s consensus price target sits at $165.96, implying about 7% upside from current levels. That’s a far more modest call than HSBC’s $190 target.
Target’s next earnings report will show whether the foot-traffic trend Thomas is betting on can carry through the critical holiday season.
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