TLDR
- SpaceX’s Nasdaq 100 weighting is expected to rise from roughly 1.28% to 2.82% following a rebalance later this month.
- The change could trigger billions in new buying from passive funds, including the $481 billion QQQ ETF.
- Baird Financial Group acquired 78,590 SPCX shares in Q2, valued at around $13.4 million.
- SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year over year, with a loss per share of $0.09, beating estimates.
- Analyst consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $221.06.
SpaceX (SPCX) opened at $151.21 on Friday, well below the analyst consensus price target of $221.06, as the company prepares for a meaningful shift in its Nasdaq 100 weighting later this month.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The index rebalance is expected to lift SpaceX’s weighting from roughly 1.28% to about 2.82%, based on pro forma data from Nasdaq’s Global Index Watch released late Friday. The final weighting will be confirmed later in September.
The move matters because passive funds that track the Nasdaq 100 are required to adjust their holdings to match the index. That includes the Invesco QQQ Trust, which holds around $481 billion in assets. Roughly $1.7 trillion in total assets tracked the Nasdaq 100 as of the end of Q2.
Wall Street expects the rebalance to trigger billions of dollars in new buying of SPCX by index funds and ETFs.
SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq 100 in July, but its initial weighting was kept low because most of its shares were locked up and not available for public trading. Nasdaq had changed its rules to allow newly listed large-cap companies to enter the index sooner, but the limited free float capped SpaceX’s weighting from the start.
As lockup periods have expired, more SpaceX shares have become available to trade. That expanding free float is what is now pushing its index weighting higher. Further lockup expirations are scheduled, which could lift the weighting again in future rebalances.
SpaceX’s first lockup expiration came in August, alongside its first earnings release as a public company. There were concerns that a flood of newly tradable shares could pressure the stock, but the expected selloff did not happen. Insiders largely held their positions through a second lockup expiration a week later.
Institutional Buying Picks Up
Baird Financial Group acquired a new position of 78,590 SPCX shares during Q2, valued at approximately $13.4 million. Several smaller institutional investors also opened new positions during the same period, including Syntax Research, Atwood & Palmer, and Marquette Asset Management.
SPCX has a 12-month low of $104.83 and a 12-month high of $225.64. The stock’s 50-day moving average sits at $134.79, and its market cap stands at roughly $1.98 trillion.
Earnings Beat and Key Contracts
SpaceX reported Q2 earnings on August 4, posting revenue of $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year over year. The company reported a loss of $0.09 per share, beating the consensus estimate of a $0.26 loss by $0.17.
Analysts currently expect a full-year EPS of -$0.15.
On the analyst front, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $220 price target, citing growth in AI, Starship, and Starlink. Guggenheim and Argus also initiated or upgraded to Buy ratings in recent weeks.
A 319-million-share lockup release has added potential selling pressure, and some analysts have flagged the stock’s valuation at roughly 98 times sales as a risk factor.
SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen disclosed a new AI-computing agreement worth approximately $1.11 billion per month, with revenue set to begin December 1.
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