TLDR
- Macquarie reiterated an Outperform rating on SpaceX with a $250 price target, implying ~100% upside from ~$127
- SPCX jumped over 6% on Tuesday, snapping a seven-session losing streak
- The stock is still down more than 20% from its debut closing price after its June 12 IPO
- Anthropic signed a deal to use all compute at SpaceX’s Colossus 1 data center, covering 300MW and 220,000+ Nvidia GPUs
- SpaceX reports earnings for the first time as a public company on August 4, which also triggers the first phase of IPO lock-up expiry
SpaceX (SPCX) stock bounced more than 6% on Tuesday, recovering to around $127 after Macquarie told investors to treat the recent pullback as a buying opportunity. The stock has been sliding since its record IPO on June 12 and remains below its $135 IPO price.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Macquarie reaffirmed its Outperform rating and set a $250 price target — nearly double where the stock sits now. Analysts led by Paul Golding used a blend of Sum-of-the-Parts and Discounted Cash Flow analysis, factoring in both core launch economics and emerging AI compute revenue.
The central argument: SpaceX is not just a rocket company anymore.
Macquarie frames it as a compute utility — one that controls satellite bandwidth, reusable launch capacity, and internally built chips and data centers. The firm argues that Starlink’s orbital footprint and a proposed system of up to one million satellites running on near-continuous solar power could sidestep the power and cooling constraints that are bottlenecking ground-based data centers.
Commercial Deals Backing the Thesis
The AI infrastructure story is already generating real contracts. Anthropic has agreed to take all compute capacity at SpaceX’s Colossus 1 facility, locking in roughly 300 megawatts of power and more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. Alphabet also has multi-billion-dollar AI compute arrangements with SpaceX, positioning the company as a wholesale infrastructure supplier rather than just a launch vendor.
Macquarie sees these deals as early proof the strategy works — and says they anchor the case to “buy any dip.”
Not everyone is on board. Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson argued last week that the stock is still expensive at 92 times trailing revenues, calling it nearly 10 times overvalued based on a 10x revenue multiple he considers generous.
Short sellers appear to agree with the skeptics. Short interest has climbed to roughly one-third of SpaceX’s public float, and because only a limited portion of stock is available before the lock-up expires, the elevated short interest has added to volatility. Elon Musk pushed back on Monday, writing on X that firms holding large short positions in SpaceX over time have a “very low” survival probability.
Earnings and Lock-Up Expiry on August 4
The next major event on the calendar is August 4, when SpaceX will report quarterly earnings for the first time as a public company. That date also kicks off the first phase of a staggered IPO lock-up expiration.
Following the earnings release, insiders can sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up holdings — as many as 911.5 million shares. An additional 10% becomes eligible if the stock trades at least 30% above its IPO price for five of the ten sessions leading into earnings.
SpaceX’s 13th Starship test flight added another overhang last week after it was aborted less than a second before liftoff due to multiple engine ignition failures. Macquarie said the near-term issue hasn’t changed the long-term investment case.
SPCX currently trades around $127, still more than 20% below its debut closing price.
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