In this edition, we discuss where the top players in crypto expect the bitcoin price to land as the bull market returns.
But as the pioneer crypto steals the show and capital flows back to the king, where does this leave altcoins, decentralised finance, and yield-bearing crypto products?
Let’s dig in.
PlanB — the chart analyst behind the stock-to-flow model says Bitcoin could reach $288,000 or more this cycle. The analyst has over 25 years of experience in institutional investing.
Check out the full article here!
The Bull market is Back
The bull market is back. Bitcoin extended its rally to the top of the wedge ($52,000) and then some during Wednesday trading. The new local high of $55,300 cements the trend reversal in the broader cryptocurrency market, with prices being only 17.5% away from all-time highs.
At the time of writing, prices are above all key moving averages and indicators with virtually no overhead resistance except for the $55,000 — $57,000 region. If BTC/USD starts to lose $49,000 on a closing daily basis, then it will be time to revisit the High time frame picture. Until then, the Q4 outlook is clearly forward-looking.
Aside from that, there isn’t much to talk about with regards to prices that haven’t been said already.
Notably, Bitcoin has taken the limelight from altcoins during this upthrust. In fact, BTC.D has surged 6.4% since prices bounced from $46,800 on October 4th.
Capital flows are funnelling into Bitcoin, and it would not be surprising to eventually hear rumors of central banks adopting BTC as collateral once the ongoing monetary crisis reaches its apex. El Salvador has rattled the cages, and it would be naive to think that this is the end rather than the beginning of a trend among countries. But I digress.
Normally, BTC/USD tends to print new all-time highs before money circulates back into altcoins, which means BTC.D could return to 50% or more before cooling off. The general direction of BTC.D has been downward since March, and long-term technical indicators tend to be quite consequential in either direction. Noting the 3-day super-trend, which has ample historical precedent behind it, a breakout from 46% would signal that a macro trend reversal in capital flows is underway.
Price-wise, this could be accompanied by both the end of the bull market (where investors retreat into bitcoin) or a mammoth rally that surpasses all expectations.
Standing above $1 trillion, Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, which is to say that it is the primary market that dictates altcoin trends.
History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes — that’s the mantra.
Financial applications that have come into being on Ethereum and other blockchains have made their way to the Bitcoin ecosystem — Sovryn being one of the major Bitcoin DeFi protocols that offer borrowing, lending, and other financial products for BTC. These innovations are hardly new, and in my estimation, indicate a tacit low-key agreement of decentralised financial products that originated on other projects.
This is a significant change in tone from bitcoin developers.
When the facts change, the narratives tend to follow at some point or another. And in such a fast-moving industry, I’d say sooner is more likely than later, provided the bull market is still in play.
But the question still stands: are altcoins dead? Will Bitcoin dominance recover well above 50%, or will yield-bearing decentralised applications gain momentum? These are all variations of the same question.
Truth be told, most investors would rather put their assets to work to earn passive yield rather than watch massive price swings in their portfolios. The industry is maturing, and yield-bearing protocols are becoming popular — go figure. As such, it’s hard not to notice that BTC is late to this party.
Amidst the possibilities, however, one thing is certain — while many projects will fail, altcoins are not going away. The exponentially growing stablecoin market cap ($68 billion USDT alone), which is almost exclusively built on Ethereum, is a testament to that.
With that in mind, it’s worth considering heavier altcoin exposure (even for swing plays) at the 46%-50% BTC.D level, assuming the bull market is still in play.
Notice that traditional finance is never even considered — that’s a done deal that will whither away in the years ahead.
Catch you later.
p.s. This is my opinion. You can have your own opinion..
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