TLDR
- Brent crude fell to about $92 a barrel and WTI to about $86 on Thursday.
- Vice President JD Vance is weighing direct talks with Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei.
- Saudi Arabia reported a 26% rise in October oil output to 10.56 million barrels per day.
- Private data showed a 9-million barrel jump in U.S. crude inventories.
- Official U.S. inventory data is due Thursday, and the IEA report is due Friday.
Oil prices fell on Thursday as traders weighed hopes for new U.S.-Iran talks against ongoing risks to shipping. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, dropped between 0.4% and 1% to between $91.79 and $92.42 a barrel, depending on the time of reading. West Texas Intermediate futures slipped to between $85.69 and $86.15.
Brent has still gained more than 50% this year. It has fallen sharply in recent days, though.
Diplomacy in Focus
The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance is considering in-person talks with Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei. The paper cited U.S. and Middle Eastern officials and people familiar with the talks. It said President Donald Trump has empowered Vance to negotiate, but the discussions about a meeting remain preliminary.
Trump has said he does not believe more strikes on Iran will be needed. Vance has largely blamed the war for hurting the Republican Party in the November midterm elections.
Some investors hope a Democratic victory in the midterms will lead to more progress toward peace. Strategists at Singapore-based bank OCBC said expectations of less U.S.-Iran escalation after the vote have weighed on crude.
Big gaps remain between the two sides. They disagree on an American naval blockade of Iranian ports and on frozen assets. Rezaei has also suggested that no enriched uranium will be allowed to leave Iran. That could reject a major U.S. demand.
Supply Picks Up
Saudi Arabia told the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that its output rose 26% in October to 10.56 million barrels per day. That is one of the highest levels in years.
🚨 BREAKING: Saudi Arabia just SURGED oil production to near PRE-WAR LEVELS, it told OPEC — Bloomberg
Almost 10.6 MILLION barrels per day!
AND THERE IT IS.
The whole OPEC+ group jumped too, up more than 2 MILLION barrels a day
President Trump’s strategy in Iran is working.… pic.twitter.com/c37e3KbS33
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 11, 2026
Saudi Arabia has used its east-west pipeline to divert some shipments away from the Strait of Hormuz. This has continued despite a conflict with Houthi rebels in Yemen. U.S. naval security has also helped guide oil through Hormuz to global markets.
OCBC said resilient Gulf exports, easing freight costs and softer physical-market conditions have also pressured prices. Shipping data suggests oil flows out of the region are recovering.
Analysts at ING said regional crude flows are approaching pre-war levels. They added that exports still rely on routes around Hormuz, which leaves supply open to disruption. ING expects volatility to stay high.
Attacks on shipping continue. The International Maritime Organization said Wednesday it had verified more than 130 attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28. At least 25 seafarers have been killed, and others are missing or injured.
Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows before the war started in late February. The conflict began as a U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Saudi Civil Defense also said debris from two intercepted Houthi ballistic missiles fell in the Mecca region on Wednesday. This included Sabuhah village, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
OCBC kept its year-end Brent forecast at $100 a barrel. It cited tanker attacks, longer shipping routes and limited vessel availability as reasons delivered crude costs remain high.
U.S. industry data showed an unexpected 9-million barrel build in crude inventories last week. Such data often points to a similar trend in official figures.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly petroleum report later Thursday, delayed one day for Veterans Day. The International Energy Agency will publish its monthly oil-market report on Friday.
