TLDR
- Microsoft stock jumped 3.7% to $516.50 after unveiling a major Copilot AI redesign
- The new “super app” bundles chat, Office tools, code generation and an autonomous agent called Autopilot
- Stifel upgraded MSFT to Buy on September 23, citing strong fiscal Q4 results
- Oppenheimer raised its price target to $570 from $515, implying about 14% upside
- Azure cloud growth could reach 46% this quarter, with a path toward 50% next
Microsoft stock climbed 3.7% in morning trading on Thursday, hitting $516.50. The move came after the company rolled out a redesigned version of its Copilot AI platform.
The new setup turns Copilot into what Microsoft calls a unified enterprise “super app.” It bundles chat, Office productivity tools, natural language code generation and a new autonomous AI agent called Autopilot.
This is Microsoft’s biggest push yet to turn its Microsoft 365 customer base into paying Copilot subscribers. It also puts the company in more direct competition with Anthropic’s Claude in the enterprise AI space.
The timing wasn’t random either. Microsoft also announced bigger volume discounts on Copilot enterprise subscriptions, set to kick in this October, right alongside the product launch.
Stifel added fuel to the rally. The firm upgraded Microsoft from Hold to Buy on September 23, pointing to strong fiscal Q4 2026 results that included solid Azure growth and Copilot crossing 30 million paid seats.
The broader market only added modest support. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq added 0.4%, all well behind Microsoft’s own gain.
What Oppenheimer Heard at Microsoft HQ
Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz visited Microsoft’s headquarters and came away more confident. He raised his price target to $570 from $515 on September 22, keeping an Outperform rating.
That target implies roughly 14% upside from the stock’s September 21 close of $501.61. Schwartz described management as upbeat, pointing to new agentic features and solid customer demand.
He also expects Azure to grow about 46% at constant currency this quarter, with a path toward 50% the following quarter. That would beat Microsoft’s own guidance of roughly 45%.
In his note, Schwartz wrote that customers are increasingly standardizing on Microsoft as their main enterprise AI platform. Once a company builds its workflow around one AI vendor, switching gets expensive and difficult.
The Numbers Behind the Optimism
Microsoft’s cloud business has been putting up strong numbers lately. Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 43% in the fiscal fourth quarter.
Azure revenue also topped $100 billion for fiscal 2026, a first for the company. That came alongside a jump in spending, with fiscal fourth-quarter capital expenditures up 70% to $41 billion.
Microsoft expects calendar 2026 capital spending of roughly $175 billion. That heavy spending has been a concern for some investors watching the stock lag the broader market this year.
Schwartz argued the spending is becoming more predictable. He wrote that efficiency gains and capital discipline are helping produce more predictable capital expenditures and positive free cash flow this year.
Oppenheimer’s new $570 target lands close to the Street average of $571.51, according to TipRanks. Other firms have their own numbers on the board. Bank of America set a $600 target in early September, while Morgan Stanley has a $650 target from June.
Schwartz also flagged risks. He pointed to AI disruption and pull-forward of second-half 2026 enterprise IT spending as threats that could slow Azure and Microsoft 365 growth heading into 2027.
Pull-forward means companies that rushed to buy software and cloud capacity late in 2026 may need less in early 2027, which could stall growth rates even if the underlying business stays healthy.
Microsoft’s next earnings report is expected in late October. Investors will be watching whether Azure growth clears that 45% guidance and moves toward the 46% Schwartz is projecting.
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