TLDR
- Moderna stock jumped over 14% after its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, hit its primary goal in a Phase 3 trial
- The trial showed intismeran, combined with Merck’s Keytruda, helped melanoma patients stay cancer-free longer than Keytruda alone
- Barclays raised its price target on Moderna to $125 from $48; Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Peer Perform from Underperform
- Wolfe analysts project unadjusted peak sales of $9.2B across four cancer indications before the profit split with Merck
- Moderna stock is up 392% year-to-date, though analysts note much of the commercial upside may already be priced in
Moderna stock was trading around $154.94 on Tuesday, up nearly 12% on the session, making it the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 that day. The broader move higher comes after the stock surged following last week’s Phase 3 trial announcement, pulled back on profit-taking, and is now recovering.
The catalyst is the Phase 3 trial result for intismeran autogene, Moderna’s personalized mRNA cancer vaccine developed in partnership with Merck. The trial showed the combination of intismeran and Merck’s Keytruda helped melanoma patients stay cancer-free longer than Keytruda alone. This is the first positive late-stage trial result for an mRNA cancer vaccine.
The 1,100 trial participants received the injection after having their melanomas surgically removed. Intismeran targets up to 34 patient-specific neoantigens, abnormal proteins on cancer cells that help the immune system identify and attack tumors. Each dose is personalized by sequencing a patient’s removed tumor to map its unique mutations.
It takes around six weeks from collecting a patient’s cell sample to delivering the finished vaccine. During that window, patients can begin Keytruda while their custom treatment is being manufactured.
Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Moves
Barclays analyst Eliana Merle raised the firm’s price target on Moderna to $125 from $48, while keeping an Equal Weight rating. She believes intismeran is more likely than not to make it through the regulatory process.
Wolfe Research moved Moderna from Underperform to Peer Perform on Tuesday. Analyst Alexandria Hammond noted that many investors likely misunderstood the definition of a cancer vaccine, which may have contributed to last week’s sharp stock move.
BofA Securities and William Blair also upgraded the stock following the trial readout. Wolfe estimates unadjusted peak sales of $9.2B across four indications, including adjuvant melanoma, RCC, MIBC, and NSCLC, before the profit split with Merck.
Leerink Partners projects intismeran could generate annual sales in the low-single-digit billions by 2032. Merck forecasts roughly $6 billion by 2035.
Valuation Questions Remain
Both Moderna and Merck each gained over $40 billion in market value in a single day last Wednesday. With a $10 billion sales peak supporting roughly $40 billion in combined market value, analysts suggest much of the upside may already be reflected in current prices.
Intismeran has yet to prove its efficacy in other cancer types. There are nine ongoing trials in solid tumors, including cancers of the lung, kidney, and pancreas. Analysts generally view the melanoma data as a positive indicator for those trials, but results are not guaranteed.
Analysts project 2027 as a potential commercialization year if interim data holds up. Moderna’s 52-week high sits at $176.66.
On Tuesday, both Wolfe Research and Argus also raised their price targets on Merck, citing pipeline strength. Merck has been working to identify its next blockbuster ahead of the loss of exclusivity for Keytruda.
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