TLDR
- Micron stock was up 1.2% at $961.51 in early Friday trading, building on a 12% gain over the past month.
- KeyBanc forecasts DRAM prices rising 15%-20% in Q3, with NAND flash memory prices up 30%-40%.
- New Street Research upgraded MU to buy with a $1,250 price target, citing a structural shift away from the memory boom-bust cycle.
- New Street projects Micron could hold over $600 billion in cash and generate $150 billion in annual free cash flow by 2030.
- UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri set a $1,625 price target, while the Wall Street average target sits at $1,549.
Micron Technology stock was trading at $961.51 Friday morning, up 1.2%, as analysts lined up with bullish calls and memory prices looked set to keep climbing.
The move adds to a 12% gain over the past month, though the stock remains below its late June peak of more than $1,200. Micron has more than tripled in value year to date.
The rally got a boost from Sandisk, which laid out an upbeat long-term forecast earlier this week. That sent investors back into the memory trade broadly, with SK Hynix ADRs also gaining 1.4% in premarket trading.
KeyBanc put some numbers behind the optimism. The firm forecasts DRAM prices will rise between 15% and 20% in Q3 from the prior quarter, then a further 15% in Q4. NAND flash memory prices are expected to climb 30% to 40% in Q3, followed by another 15% gain in Q4.
New Street Upgrades to Buy
New Street Research upgraded Micron to buy Friday morning with a $1,250 price target. The firm’s argument is that this memory cycle is not like the ones before it.
The firm pointed out that Micron’s stock is up more than 10 times since its April 2025 lows, while production value measured by cost of goods sold is up only around 25%. That gap, they argue, reflects a structural change rather than a typical cyclical pop.
New Street began a research series in July looking at whether memory has become structurally different. Friday’s upgrade is the conclusion of that work.
By 2030, New Street expects Micron to hold more than $600 billion in cash on its balance sheet and generate more than $150 billion in annual free cash flow. Those are described as peak numbers.
AI Demand Driving the Math
Even in a projected downturn after 2030, New Street models a much milder pullback than past cycles, with just $18 billion in free cash flow burn at the trough and over $100 billion generated annually across a four-year downturn.
The firm expects memory demand to grow 15% annually beyond 2030, versus a 10% historical average over the past two decades. AI is expected to account for two-thirds of the demand mix.
On valuation, New Street said high-bandwidth memory deserves a premium over traditional commodity DRAM because it is less cyclical. That combination, the firm said, implies a $2 trillion to $3 trillion market cap for Micron by 2030.
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri set a $1,625 price target this week, based on 11 times his forecast for Micron’s 2029 earnings. He noted the target accounts for a moderate memory downcycle by that point.
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 times, below most chip peers. Wall Street’s average price target on Micron is $1,549, according to FactSet.
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