With weekly futures performance surging over 100%, Hyperliquid’s derivatives activity is back on a bullish track, indicating a sharp resurgence of speculative interest. On the other side: Bitcoin and Ethereum aren’t feeling that well as they reach local resistances.
The recent price recovery, in which HYPE has risen from the mid-$20 range to above $40, is consistent with this increase in futures positioning, creating a distinct series of higher highs and higher lows. From a structural standpoint, the asset is now trading within a well-defined ascending trend, supported by rising short-term moving averages. Buyers are actively defending pullbacks, as evidenced by the price’s constant respect for the local trendline.
The short-term trend has changed from recovery to expansion, at least on shorter timeframes, as a result of the move above important mid-range resistance levels. The rise in futures activity implies that traders are using leverage again, which usually increases volatility and momentum. Strong directional movements are frequently accompanied by this type of increase in derivatives participation, but it also introduces fragility.
The market is more susceptible to liquidations and abrupt reversals when futures flows grow too quickly. Derivatives-driven momentum and underlying demand diverge because spot-side volume is not growing at the same rate. This disparity is crucial. Although short-term price increases can be achieved through futures, long-term trends typically need spot buying confirmation.
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HYPE is currently getting close to a resistance area in the low $40s, where prior rallies have stalled. With smaller candles and less follow-through, the price is already displaying signs of hesitation in that area. This does not rule out the uptrend, but it does imply that a shallow pullback or consolidation may be the next stage.
Whether derivatives activity stabilizes or keeps growing will be crucial in the future. The market may experience a correction due to position unwinding if futures interest stays high without matching spot demand. The rally will have a stronger base if both metrics start to line up.
Ethereum faces troubles
Ethereum’s apparent controlled recovery phase has been interrupted, as it has returned to a downtrend more quickly than most anticipated.
ETH failed to generate enough momentum to maintain the move after stabilizing above the $2,000 mark and progressively rising higher, which resulted in a dramatic loss of structure close to local resistance. A significant turning point was the recent rejection in the $2,300-$2,400 range. The price made an effort to stay above short-term moving averages, but there was never any follow-through.
Rather than creating a breakout setup, ETH is compressing under declining resistance, creating a weak continuation pattern. The abrupt change in trend can be attributed to the rapidity of this transition. Technically speaking, Ethereum is currently trading below important short- and mid-term moving averages that have begun to reverse. This is a crucial adjustment.
These levels served as dynamic support in the initial stages of recovery. They are now starting to reinforce downward pressure by acting as resistance. As long as ETH stays below the longer-term average, which keeps sloping downward, the overall trend is still negative.
Volume also doesn’t help with a recovery. Although participation has decreased in tandem with recent upward attempts, selloffs continue to cause discernible spikes in activity. This imbalance usually indicates that sellers are still in charge of the market.
The lack of structural strength in the most recent higher lows is another problem. Although ETH made an effort to create an ascending base, the slope was shallow and prone to disturbance. The fragility of the previous uptrend was confirmed when the price lost that support and began to decline more quickly, with little opposition.
Looking ahead, Ethereum is likely to test lower support zones unless buyers step in decisively. Whether ETH can recover the $2,300 range is the main concern right now. The market is still vulnerable to additional declines in the absence of that.
Bitcoin’s recovery looks short-lived
Although Bitcoin is keeping up a stable recovery structure, the next big test is quickly coming.
Bitcoin is about a week away from facing the 200-day EMA, which has continuously defined the larger trend over the previous few months, if the current rate of growth continues. The price has risen from the mid-$60,000 range and is currently moving in the direction of the high-$70,000 area, creating a clear series of higher lows. A short-term ascending channel supports the move, and buyers intervene during pullbacks to maintain momentum.
Although Bitcoin is still developing under strong long-term resistance, this is the strongest structure it has displayed since the last significant decline. The 200 EMA’s position as a dynamic ceiling is reinforced by the fact that it is significantly above the current price and is still sloping downward.
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As BTC gets closer to that zone, there are concerns about the sustainability of the move because volume is currently not growing rapidly. Although momentum indicators are showing a positive trend, they are not in breakout territory.
This implies that the market is moving forward, but not with the level of conviction usually required to overcome significant resistance on the first try.
Under comparable circumstances, the likelihood of rejection rises if Bitcoin hits the 200 EMA. However, there are no indications of any impending weakness in the market. The short-term moving averages are in favor of buyers, and the current structure is still in place.
Whether volume and participation start to increase along with price will be crucial over the course of the next week. Bitcoin might try to seriously challenge the 200 EMA if they do. If not, there is a chance that the move will stall into a pullback or consolidation just below that level.
