After the close, Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 results. On May 28, April PCE and the Q1 GDP second estimate land simultaneously at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here is what active traders should have a structured framework for over the next fourteen days.
FOMC minutes — May 20 (Today)
The Federal Reserve publishes its April 28–29 meeting minutes today at 2:00 p.m. ET. The committee voted to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, noting that inflation remains elevated, in part reflecting rising global energy prices and that Middle East developments are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.
These minutes carry a specific significance beyond the standard release cycle. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair on May 13 in a 54–45 Senate vote; his first FOMC meeting is June 16–17.
The April minutes represent the last complete record of committee deliberations under the previous leadership structure, published at a moment when markets are still calibrating what Warsh’s stated intention (to reduce the frequency of Fed communications and step back from unconditional post-meeting press conferences) means for how the next rate decision gets signaled and read.
Traders will be looking at how individual committee members framed the tension between sticky inflation and a softening labor market.
April CPI, released May 12, came in at +3.8% year-over-year; April nonfarm payrolls, released May 8, showed +115K jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
If the minutes reveal significant internal disagreement about whether energy-driven inflation is transitory or broadening, that disagreement becomes the interpretive backdrop for Warsh’s June framing.
If committee members broadly aligned on a patient, data-dependent hold, that is a different signal into summer. Both scenarios have historically been read differently by rate-sensitive assets. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, all spot and margin pairs with rate-path sensitivity.
GDP Q1 2026 second estimate + April PCE — May 28
Both releases land simultaneously at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, May 28.
GDP second estimate
The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate for Q1 2026 put real GDP growth at +2.0% annualized, a rebound from Q4 2025’s +0.5%. The second estimate incorporates more complete data on trade flows, services consumption, and corporate inventories; revisions in either direction are common at this stage.
Traders will assess whether the 2.0% headline reflects durable private demand or was disproportionately supported by one-time factors including a rebound in federal compensation and defense-related outlays. A material downward revision would add complexity to the Warsh Fed’s framing at June 16–17.
April PCE
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for April. The March reading came in at +3.5% year-over-year headline and +3.2% year-over-year core. April CPI offered a partial signal: headline +3.8%, core +2.8%, with energy accounting for a large share of the monthly increase.
PCE and CPI use different methodologies, so the readings can diverge, but the directional question is whether core PCE held near its March pace or whether the easing in CPI core translates to a similar easing in the PCE measure.
This is the last inflation print before Warsh chairs his first meeting. If core PCE moves materially higher from March’s +3.2%, it compresses the space for any near-term adjustment and gives the higher-for-longer case renewed weight. If core PCE decelerates toward or below 3%, it reopens the debate about the pace of the policy cycle.
Both scenarios carry implications for how rate-sensitive assets are positioned heading into June 16–17. Historically, rate-sensitive assets including crypto have responded to PCE readings in both directions depending on how the data composition breaks relative to prevailing expectations. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, spot and margin pairs broadly.
Nvidia Q1 FY2027 earnings — May 20 (today, after market close)
Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 results tonight. The press release is expected around 4:20 p.m. ET; the conference call begins at 5:00 p.m. ET.
The company’s own guidance set Q1 revenue at $78.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. The quarter reflects the period through April 26, during which Blackwell-architecture products have continued to ramp as the primary engine of data center revenue.
The number that will move markets is Q2 guidance. Consensus has already priced approximately $86 billion for Q2 FY2027. A guide in line with or above that figure reads as acceleration; a guide below it reads as deceleration regardless of how strong the Q1 print is. This is a dynamic that has contributed to negative stock reactions on four of Nvidia’s last five earnings beats.
CEO Jensen Huang’s commentary on Blackwell supply availability into H2 2026, China H200 revenue recognition under current export conditions, and the Rubin platform transition timeline will all be parsed for signals about the trajectory of the AI infrastructure buildout.
Nvidia’s report does not directly determine crypto valuations, but as one of the largest companies by market capitalization and a principal weight in major equity indices, the after-hours reaction shapes the next session’s broader risk appetite.
Crypto markets trade around the clock, and Asian-session participants often begin pricing equity risk sentiment before US cash markets open. Traders with positions sensitive to macro risk appetite should have a framework prepared for either scenario tonight.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, broadly — risk sentiment channel.
BTC & ETH monthly options expiry — May 29
BTC and ETH monthly options expire on Friday, May 29 at 08:00 UTC on Deribit and at 4:00 p.m. London time on CME.
In the days preceding monthly expiry, open interest concentrates at key strike levels and positioning around max pain (the level at which the aggregate options position expires worthless) and can introduce short-term price behavior that departs from trend. This effect is not reliable or mechanical, but traders running options positions will be managing gamma exposure through the week.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, spot, perpetuals, and futures.
Other events this window
ISM Manufacturing PMI for May releases Monday, June 1 (10:00 a.m. ET); April’s reading held at 52.7, a recent high, with prices surging. ISM Services PMI follows Wednesday, June 3. Both provide a secondary read on whether business activity sustained its expansion trajectory.
The May employment situation report (NFP) is scheduled for Friday, June 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET, one day beyond this window’s close, but worth noting given its role as the last major labor data point before the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.
Closing context
The next fourteen days form the data corridor between two structurally significant moments: the completed Powell-to-Warsh leadership handover and Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on June 16–17.
The releases arriving in this window (Powell’s last meeting minutes today, April PCE and GDP on May 28, and May NFP on June 5) represent the primary input set that will shape how traders read the new Fed’s opening position.
That creates a well-defined analytical framework: watch how each print lands relative to the inflation and labor trends already established, and assess what that means for the rate path into the second half of 2026.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk.
