The cryptocurrency market for this last period of the year begins with a total capitalization of approximately $ 2,185 T. With a recovery of approximately 80% of the outgoing volume and after the last correction that took place in the middle of this year.
Consequently, there is a dominance of Bitcoin under the parameter of 42.1% and in relation to the dominance of the rest of assets with large injected volumes. Actually, the above reflects a low interest in many parties and a decrease in the incoming flow of money that we had perceived months ago.
This first indicator does not generate controversy, but we must pay close attention to certain parameters that are telling us that the market is currently in an accumulation phase and with false continuation signals.
For this reason, this article will not be about a gradual technical analysis that we are all used to. It will deal with a study of the greatest indicators to whom we must pay attention for this last period of the year.
If we open the monthly MACD of Bitcoin, we see that there is a cut in the moving averages, which is spreading in a few moments with a decrease in the volume of purchase.
Some theorists may interpret this as the beginning of reaccumulation, but we will interpret it as a possible confusion between buyers and sellers. It is really important at this point that Bitcoin and other crypto assets define their inflection point.
On the side of the weekly period, the MACD indicator shows a minimal price recovery signal. The big problem to be solved is the current turning point that is not very clear to some: so far, there are two green bars, but with a direction towards a possible accumulation.
Overall, on a monthly basis, the main asset of the market is still overbought, but on a weekly basis, it is oversold. This last fact causes confusion among the big players in the market who do not know exactly the direction they will take. Many are aiming for a new capitalization, but others prefer to lower investment risk.
Those who have accompanied us, since this community was born, know very well that currently, and under the monthly parameters, Bitcoin is within a definition of Elliot’s second wave or continuation of the First, which although, we remember, it began in the year 2020.
Subsequent to the above, weekly, there is what would be the continuation of wave five, but with imminent danger of creating a double top.
However, for this point of agreement, it is very important to pay attention to the real direction that the asset is taking. This is: monthly, and according to the ADX, we will have an accumulation period; Already weekly, we are in favor of going towards the run of the bears.
Something that you are wanting to talk about is the incongruity that exists between the RSI and the stochastic RSI for the monthly period. While the RSI points towards the breakout of 70 points, the stochastic RSI each time shows a correction signal and in a biased direction in favor of sellers.
Contrary to the monthly period, the weekly period shows a congruent ratio between RSI and stochastic RSI in favor of bulls, but with a possible failure at the overbought point.
Under these parameters, we can affirm that the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin present interest but with mixed indicators that do not lead to a congruent direction. That is: while long-term investors see a correcting market, medium-term investors see opportunity.
Few traders and investors are not paying attention to what Fisher’s Transform is saying. In a personal way, and when we implemented this indicator in our personal technical analysis strategy, we were able to solve the dilemma of most of the mixed indicators that we have.
So far, Fisher is one of the underused, underserved, and neglected indicators by crypto enthusiasts. However, if we pay close attention to this indicator, we can see that on a monthly basis, we are within a possible correction margin but with a current trend of lateralization.
With the same idea of above, weekly, we see that we are leaving the oversold zone and entering a period of acquisition and accumulation. For this, it is very careful to pay attention to the critical points of previous histories and very close to the five points of convergence.
Again and with the previous observations, it is noted that long-term investors are waiting for the moment of decision, but medium-term investors are beginning to anticipate the bull run.
Based on the previous indicators, we can establish a fixed and clear point to make good decisions in this last period of the year. This boils down to the fact that to consider future purchases, it is very important to follow the movement of the Fisher Transform and pay attention to long-term support and resistance.
If we look closely, there is an upper limit between 54494.24 and 62380.99. This channel of convergence and resistance is one of the parameters that the market and mainly Bitcoin must overcome to reach new historical highs.
There is clarity that there is still a convergent buy signal above the EMA9, which under the price of 41602.23 behaves like support but with symmetry of downward divergence towards the EMA21 and the exact price of the 31926 convergent with Ichimoku.
Congruent to all the previous order of ideas, for those hoping to see that Bitcoin surpassing 100k of dollars soon, we have to remind them that first it must overcome all these mixed indicators, reach a trend congruence, and above all, exceed the 0.6 line Fibonacci retraction.