Popular on-chain analyst PlanB, the creator of the well-known Stock-to-Flow (S2F) mathematical model, has issued a major forecast: during the current halving cycle, Bitcoin could still rise to a range between $250,000 and $1 million, with an average target of around $500,000.
Despite the current market cooldown, the expert is urging investors to remain patient and not confuse temporary pullbacks with the end of the cycle.
PlanB’s main argument is Bitcoin’s strict mathematical cyclicality, which is tied to halvings. Slightly more than half of the period has passed since the latest halving in April 2024, while 639 days — almost two years — remain until the end of the current epoch.
According to the analyst, the previously recorded local high of $126,000 was not the peak of this four-year period. The real climb toward the S2F model’s target levels should unfold between 2026 and 2028. At the same time, the model does not predict exact peaks or local bottoms. It points to a fundamental average price level that inevitably rises because of the asset’s scarcity.
The “Maximum Pain” scenario
PlanB takes a realistic view of the current risks and openly acknowledges that Bitcoin could set a new local low in the near term. Historically, during every bear market, the price has fallen below the so-called realized price — the average acquisition cost of all coins in the market — which currently stands at $53,000.
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However, Bitcoin often begins a new phase of growth amid widespread disappointment and capitulation among retail investors. If the market becomes convinced that a prolonged depression is underway, a rapid price surge toward the $500,000–$1 million range would inflict what the industry calls “maximum pain” on skeptics and short sellers.
The bottom line is that the analyst is sending the market a clear signal: the long-term trend has not been broken, and the main supply shortage is still ahead. His final advice can be summed up in one word: “Patience.”
