Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone has updated his medium-term Bitcoin forecast, warning investors about the risk of a major price correction. While the U.S. stock market, represented by the Nasdaq and S&P 500, is reaching new all-time highs, the leading cryptocurrency continues to lag behind equities.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s inability to consolidate above the psychologically important $69,000 level while stock indices are rising is a key sign that the speculative bubble is deflating.
Under the current circumstances, McGlone compares Bitcoin’s multiyear rise to a “Faustian bargain” — the industry achieved success and attracted institutional capital, but it is now paying for this by becoming completely dependent on external stimulus.
The strategist notes that every major BTC rally received temporary “artificial” support. In 2021, the largest injection of cheap liquidity into the global economy in history pushed the price toward peak levels.
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In early 2024, the long-awaited launch of spot ETFs in the United States became the trigger. Then, in late 2024, a dramatic shift in regulatory rhetoric and expectations of major political concessions for the industry temporarily pushed the price above $100,000.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $63,000. According to McGlone, capital inflows into ETFs have now dried up, while the regulatory hype has subsided, leaving the market alone with cyclical macroeconomic forces.
Tech market and altcoins are dragging Bitcoin down
A historical Bloomberg chart shows that Bitcoin’s trajectory is closely linked to the traditional stock market. The cryptocurrency’s chart mirrors the performance of the U.S. technology sector with a high degree of accuracy, specifically the ratio of the Nasdaq-100 Index to the broader S&P 500.
This spread is now beginning to turn downward. Since financial cycles always tend to revert to their mean, Bitcoin risks returning to its historical fundamental base — the average price recorded in 2019–2020, around $10,000, where the cryptocurrency traded before the beginning of massive fiat money issuance.
The analyst also considers the oversupply in a market where millions of alternative tokens now exist to be an additional source of pressure on BTC.
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However, this argument stands out as controversial because, on the contrary, the explosive growth in the number of low-quality altcoins only emphasizes the unique status of the leading cryptocurrency.
Amid an abundance of market “junk”, institutional capital is demonstrating a flight to quality, choosing Bitcoin as the only proven and scarce digital asset with a clear regulatory history.
