Key Takeaways
- Mike Alfred’s call needs about a 23% rally from $81,000 before Thanksgiving on Nov. 26.
- Roughly $2.7 billion in leveraged BTC shorts face liquidation if the price climbs to $84,000.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Oct. 28 rate decision could decide whether bitcoin squeezes up or slips under $80K.
The Confidence Is There
Mike Alfred, a longtime investor and bitcoin commentator, did not mince his words, stating unequivocally:
Ok, that’s it. I’ve seen enough to call it. $100,000 Bitcoin by Thanksgiving.
The call came shortly after bitcoin reclaimed $81,000 yesterday, ending a grinding stretch in which the asset’s price clung to $80K while nine moving averages favored bears. Days earlier, BTC had sunk as low as $79,146 as liquidations rocked weekend trading.
Getting to six figures by Nov. 26 means a gain of roughly 23% in under a month. That is aggressive, but Alfred is not alone because analyst Matthew Hyland also believes that bitcoin will probably push 100k-125k by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, Galaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn argues the market can retake $125,000, saying the bear market ended in June after a 53% maximum drawdown. Lastly, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer has also suggested the bear market is behind bitcoin and that BTC will outperform gold in the near term.
The most immediate fuel for bulls sits in the derivatives market as nearly $2.7 billion in leveraged bitcoin short positions face liquidation at $84,000, just 4% above where BTC traded at the time.
Even more is stacked overhead, with Glassnode data showing that the largest liquidation cluster now sits around $87,000, just above the October high, meaning a breakthrough above $84,000 could quickly run into another wave of forced buying.
Cryptoquant’s Ki Young Ju Draws the Line at $80K
Young Ju was also not one to sit back and took to X yesterday, stating:
“BTC must hold $80K level to avoid a long liquidation cascade toward $73K.”
Santiment has also described $80,000 as “the immediate battleground,” while noting that roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets have disappeared since Oct. 16, a sign of retail capitulation.
The bears have plenty of company, with Peter Schiff recently warning bitcoin could hit $75K, and venture investor Jason Calacanis predicting BTC will never reclaim its price peak. Even some institutional forecasts have softened, with Wall Street’s $150,000 targets for 2026 quietly falling apart.
Warsh’s Fed Holds the Trigger
Which side wins may come down to a single afternoon as the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision today at 2:00 p.m. ET, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
The stakes are high because the Fed is in tightening mode. In September, it raised rates 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% range, its first hike since 2023, and 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more increase this year. Warsh declined to preview the decision in mid-October, telling an IMF audience in Bangkok, “I don’t prejudge meetings.”
A hold would likely give bulls room to test the $84,000 short wall. A surprise hike could send BTC back under $80,000 and toward Ki Young Ju’s $73,000 cascade target. The Fed is also only one of the risks traders are juggling, with midterm election jitters building ahead of the Nov. 3 vote.
For Alfred’s call to land, bitcoin needs to clear $84,000, then $87,000, and keep going for another $13,000 in the four weeks after that. The short sellers lined up overhead could make that run faster than skeptics expect, or the Fed could shut it down before it starts.
