Key Takeaways
- Binance led $41B in BTC futures as CME open interest jumped 6.82% on Aug. 5.
- Newhedge.io showed BTC futures basis rebounded to 4.3%; watch CME expiries next.
- Deribit and Binance max pain stayed above $69K; Aug. expiries may test bullish bets.
Binance Dominates the Futures Battlefield
Binance controls the largest share of bitcoin futures open interest, according to Coinglass.com futures stats logged on Wednesday. The total value of contracts still outstanding is 148,500 BTC worth $9.61 billion. CME ranks second at 102,840 BTC, or $6.66 billion, after posting a 6.82% jump in just one day. MEXC trails with $6.12 billion, while crypto platforms Bybit and Gate each sit near the $4.5 billion mark.
CME’s Surge Reveals Who’s Quietly Returning
CME trades on a regulated U.S. exchange, making it the preferred venue for institutional capital. Its daily increase outpaced nearly every major competitor, the kind of move that usually appears when larger desks start rebuilding exposure. That stands out after total futures open interest across exchanges collapsed from about $90 billion last September and October 2025, when bitcoin traded above $120,000, to roughly $43 billion by June.
The three-month annualized basis, according to the latest metrics gathered by the bitcoin intelligence firm Newhedge.io, the premium futures trade above spot on an annualized basis, has climbed to roughly 4.3% across Binance, Deribit and OKX. That’s a sharp recovery from levels near 0.3% in late April. Premiums like this usually show traders paying more to secure future exposure, signaling improving confidence without reaching the overheated double-digit levels seen during full-blown bull markets.
Options Bulls Hold the Edge, but Conviction Looks Thin
Across the bitcoin (BTC) options market, call contracts, which profit if bitcoin rises, total 254,394 BTC in open interest versus 156,227 BTC in puts, creating a 62-38 advantage for the bulls. Fresh positioning paints a different picture. Over the past 24 hours, call and put volume has been almost evenly split, showing that new capital is hesitating even while older positions remain tilted higher.
Total bitcoin options open interest across exchanges has recovered toward $36 billion, yet CME’s own activity tells a different story. Its options notional value has fallen from roughly $290 million last November to about $50 million, while puts have consistently outnumbered calls. Most positions also cluster within one-to-two-month expiries, suggesting traders keep extending short-term bets instead of reaching further into the future.
Max Pain Keeps Pointing Above Spot
Max pain is the price where the greatest value of options expires worthless, often pulling prices toward it as expiration approaches because option writers benefit the most. Stats currently show that the digital currency exchange OKX places September and December max pain near $69,000.
Binance pushes that target even higher, approaching $80,000 around the Dec. 25 expiry. Deribit shows peaks near $69,700 for September and December before easing toward $60,000 by mid-2027. Every major options venue still points above bitcoin’s current $64,711 price.
Leverage Traders Keep Feeding the Market
Liquidations occur when leveraged positions are forced closed because losses exceed available collateral. Over the last month, newhedge.io metrics indicate that Binance longs absorbed the biggest damage, losing roughly $70 million on July 6 and another $65 million on July 14. Shorts also got caught, with $30 million to $40 million erased on July 9 and 10.
By Aug. 1, another $50 million in long positions disappeared, reinforcing the same lesson repeated throughout every volatile stretch: excessive leverage trading keeps getting wiped out regardless of direction.
The next CME weekly and monthly expiries will reveal whether max pain continues climbing and whether the futures basis stays above 4% or slips lower again. Those two signals have repeatedly exposed whether bullish positioning is gaining real traction or simply setting up the next liquidation sweep.
