Bitcoin risks wiping out the results of many years of growth entirely and returning to fundamental support at the $10,000 level. The largest digital asset, which has served as the main indicator of risk appetite since 2009, is showing signs of a global trend reversal. The key trigger for this scenario would be a large-scale decline in the US stock market.
According to Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence’s leading macro strategist, a 20% drop in the S&P 500 would set off a cascade effect that would return the cryptocurrency to its historical mean. “I see Bitcoin on track toward support around $10,000, notably if the US stock market has a 20% drawdown,” the analyst states directly in his latest report.
Bloomberg Intelligence technical indicators tracking 50-week moving averages show Bitcoin rolling over downward after its peak above $100,000, recorded in 2025. On the chart, the Bitcoin index, adjusted by a factor of 10, has fallen to 7,648, declining faster than other commodity and equity instruments. The current dynamics of the crypto market call into question the stability of adjacent sectors.
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The key question as of October 2026 is whether US stock indices and key industrial metals will follow Bitcoin. At the moment, the composite metals index stands at 8,130, the S&P 500 holds at 7,192, and copper futures have corrected to 6,045.
If Bitcoin, as the proxy asset most sensitive to liquidity, is the first to react to capital outflows, traditional markets may now be on the verge of a similar decline. In this context, McGlone puts an open question in the headline of his research: “Bitcoin Has Rolled Over — Are Stocks, Metals Next?”
The end of the cheap-money era. Where does this pessimism come from?
McGlone links Bitcoin’s bearish outlook to fundamental changes in the policies of the world’s financial regulators. Most of the world’s central banks have finally shifted their focus toward monetary restraint, keeping interest rates high. At the same time, government bond yields are rising aggressively, making conservative debt instruments more attractive to institutional capital.
“Most central banks shifting to restraint alongside surging government bond yields may signal an endgame,” the strategist states. Amid a liquidity shortage, capital is flowing into tangible defensive assets, vividly confirmed by the triumph of precious metals: in the first quarter, the gold price firmly settled above $5,000 per ounce.
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If the US stock market loses 20%, the forced closing of large players’ margin positions would inevitably return Bitcoin to the $10,000 level, which is its main historical liquidity anchor.
