TLDR
- BTC trades near $68,700, down 4% on the day after bouncing from a 12-week low near $67,500.
- US producer prices rose 6.5% year over year in October, the largest annual gain since November 2022.
- CME FedWatch odds of a 25-basis-point December hike rose from 85.4% to 89.7%.
- Rekt Capital said a weekly close below $73,000 would be BTC’s third break of that support in 2026.
- BTC is down 17.7% in Q4, its second-worst quarter on record, per CoinGlass.
Bitcoin is trading at $68,700 after a 4% drop on Saturday. The price bounced from a roughly 12-week low near $67,500 earlier in the session. Traders are watching whether that level holds into next week.
The month has been rough for the market. BTC is down 11.2% in November so far. The fourth quarter shows a 17.7% loss.
CoinGlass data shows this is Bitcoin’s second-worst quarterly performance on record. Only one earlier quarter has done worse. The quarter still has several weeks left to run.
Producer Prices Rise 6.5% From a Year Ago
Fresh inflation data landed on Friday. The US Producer Price Index rose 0.3% in October from the month before. Compared with a year earlier, it rose 6.5%.
BREAKING: October PPI Inflation rises to 6.5%, its highest level since November 2022.
Core PPI Inflation was 5.0%, in-line with expectations of 5.0%.
CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation continue to push higher in the US.
All signs point toward a December rate hike.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 13, 2026
Both readings were 0.1 percentage point below forecasts. Even so, the annual figure was the biggest since November 2022. The index tracks the prices domestic producers receive for goods and services.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said final demand goods prices led the October increase, rising 0.5%. Final demand services prices rose 0.2%. The report gave a breakdown of where costs are climbing.
Traders adjusted their bets on the Federal Reserve after the release. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now shows an 89.7% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December. That is up from 85.4% on Thursday.
The odds of a larger 50-basis-point move fell from 14.5% to 10.3%. A quarter-point move is now the clear base case. The Fed meets in December.
Economist Robin Brooks called a 25-basis-point hike “all but inevitable.” He argued against a bigger move. In his view, a 75-basis-point hike would not fix an oil-price spike tied to the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz.
Brooks added that if underlying inflation has picked up speed, 75 basis points would be too small. His point was that the right response depends on the cause of the price rise. He did not say which cause he thinks is stronger.
Stocks also traded lower at the start of the US session. The S&P 500 was down 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%. Traders were still reacting to news that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned on Thursday.
Analysts Focus on Key Moving Averages and Weekly Levels
Analyst CryptoBullet said on X that he had $68,000 marked as the bottom of this two-month correction. He said he does not like that Bitcoin lost its 200-day moving average. He called the 200-week moving average the last hope.
I had $68k as the bottom for this 2-month correction (that I perfectly called a month before it even started)
But I don’t like that $BTC lost the 200-Day MA 😕
The 200-Week MA is our last hope 🤞 https://t.co/vBiezLTCyd pic.twitter.com/K6Ps1wqrKZ
— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) November 13, 2026
Benjamin Cowen pointed to the calendar in a separate post. He wrote that Bitcoin has historically capitulated into its cycle low sometime after the US midterms. His comment ties the price pattern to past cycles.
Bitcoin has historically capitulated into its cycle low sometime after the US midterms pic.twitter.com/dkeR1wo40T
— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) November 14, 2026
Rekt Capital laid out the weekly picture. He said last week’s candle closed below three weekly levels at $75,000, $76,800 and $78,300. He described it as a sign that sell-side momentum is growing and bears are in control.
The analyst said this week’s candle looks set to do the same. A weekly close below $73,000 on Sunday would be the third break of that support in 2026. Each of the two earlier breakdowns was followed by a drop to around $60,000.
BTC now sits about $4,300 under that $73,000 line. The weekly candle closes on Sunday. That close will show whether Bitcoin finishes the week above or below the level Rekt Capital flagged.
