TLDR
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL) fell more than 2% after Q2 revenue came in at $701 million, missing Wall Street’s $712 million estimate.
- TD Cowen raised its price target on CRCL to $87 from $82, maintaining a Buy rating and citing 24% upside potential.
- CRCL is down over 42% in the past three months but has recovered 18% over the last five trading days.
- Wall Street analysts give CRCL a Moderate Buy consensus, with an average price target of $98.53, implying over 40% upside.
- Circle is preparing for the September 16 launch of Arc, a new open Layer 1 public blockchain mainnet.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock fell more than 2% on Wednesday, trading at $70.43, as investors reacted to a minor revenue miss in the company’s second quarter 2026 earnings report.
Q2 revenue came in at $701 million, below the $712 million Wall Street had expected. That gap, combined with lower reserve yields and higher spending, was enough to spook some investors.
Despite the miss, adjusted earnings per share of $0.18 landed in line with analyst forecasts. Adjusted EBITDA of $143 million also beat TD Cowen’s own estimate by 10%.
TD Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin responded by raising his price target on CRCL to $87 from $82, while keeping a Buy rating. That puts his implied upside at around 24% from current levels.
Bergin flagged several topics that have dominated investor conversations around the stock. These include the U.S. crypto CLARITY Act, rising competition, future business models, and USDC circulation trends.
He acknowledged that while investors recognize Circle’s disruptive potential, doubts remain about how the company converts its dominant position in stablecoins into meaningful long-term revenue growth.
Other Analyst Views
Not everyone is as optimistic. Morgan Stanley kept its Underweight rating and trimmed its price target to $37 from $38. The firm pointed to USDC’s circulation ending the quarter at $73.3 billion, down 4.8% quarter-over-quarter.
H.C. Wainwright also cut its target, to $104 from $115, while maintaining a Buy. The firm highlighted Circle’s reiterated 40% multi-year USDC circulation growth framework as a reason to stay constructive.
US Tiger Securities held its Buy rating with a $100 price target following the earnings print.
Across 20 analysts tracked by TipRanks, 12 rate CRCL a Buy, 5 a Hold, and 3 a Sell. The average three-month price target sits at $98.53, implying over 40% upside from current levels.
Crypto Sector Pressure
Circle’s pullback is happening against a rough backdrop for crypto-related stocks. Strategy (MSTR) is down 47% over the past three months and 37% year-to-date. Coinbase (COIN), Circle’s main USDC distribution partner, is off 28% over three months and 34% year-to-date.
Circle itself is down over 42% in three months, though it has bounced 18% in the past five trading days. Year-to-date, CRCL is down around 10%, which is a relatively softer decline compared to some peers.
BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) has dropped 16.5% over three months and 33% year-to-date.
InvestingPro data notes three analysts have recently revised earnings upward for the upcoming period, and its analysis flags CRCL as appearing undervalued at current levels.
Circle is set to launch Arc, a new open Layer 1 public blockchain mainnet, on September 16. Investors are watching that release closely.
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