TLDR
- Intel posted Q1 2026 revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year-over-year, with Data Center and AI revenue rising 22%
- The company still reported a GAAP loss of $0.73 per share despite the revenue improvement
- Intel Foundry brought in $5.4 billion last quarter, but external revenue was just $174 million
- Google has reportedly ordered over 3 million Intel-manufactured AI chips for delivery in 2028
- Wall Street holds a consensus “Hold” rating with an average 12-month price target of $97.88
Intel’s turnaround story is moving — slowly, but it’s moving. Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, the company is showing real signs of operational discipline after years of manufacturing setbacks and lost ground to rivals.
Q1 2026 revenue came in at $13.6 billion, up 7% from the same period last year. The Products division grew 9%, and Data Center and AI revenue climbed 22% as server demand and pricing improved.
For Q2, Intel is guiding revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion. That range points to continued stabilization after a rough few years.
The catch? Intel still posted a GAAP loss of $0.73 per share in Q1. This is a recovery story, not a profit machine — at least not yet.
Foundry: The Big Bet
Intel Foundry is the core of the investment thesis. Intel wants to manufacture chips for outside customers and position itself as a credible alternative to TSMC.
Foundry revenue hit $5.4 billion last quarter. But here’s the problem: external customer revenue was only $174 million of that total. The rest came from Intel’s own divisions.
Intel’s 18A manufacturing process is showing improving yields, and management is looking at opening the technology to more outside customers. That’s a step in the right direction.
Google has reportedly placed an order for more than three million internally designed AI chips to be manufactured by Intel, with delivery expected in 2028. Nvidia is also said to be evaluating Intel for a future multi-GPU processor, though no order has been confirmed.
Those would be meaningful wins if they materialize.
What Management Is Doing
Tan has cut staff, removed management layers, and pulled back on projects that no longer made financial sense. Intel has slowed construction in Ohio and walked away from planned facilities in Germany and Poland.
He has also brought in experienced semiconductor executives to sharpen the manufacturing and advanced packaging operations.
Spending is being controlled, but Intel still needs to pour billions into fabrication plants and research to stay competitive. Cost cuts alone won’t restore technological leadership.
Competition Is Not Waiting
AMD keeps chipping away at processor market share. Nvidia continues to dominate AI accelerators. TSMC remains the world’s leading contract chip manufacturer.
Intel is fighting on multiple fronts at the same time — CPUs, AI chips, and contract manufacturing. That is a difficult combination to pull off.
Intel does have some structural advantages: advanced manufacturing on U.S. soil, strong enterprise relationships, and government backing for domestic semiconductor production. Those matter, but they are not a guaranteed path to commercial success.
Where Wall Street Stands
Based on 49 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, Intel carries a Hold consensus. The breakdown: 2 Strong Buys, 15 Buys, 28 Holds, and 4 Sells.
The average 12-month price target sits at approximately $97.88.
The volume of Hold ratings reflects how divided opinion is. Bulls point to foundry potential and improving server demand. Bears cite weak profitability, execution risk, and heavy capital requirements.
The Google AI chip order, if confirmed at scale, would be the most concrete sign yet that Intel Foundry is becoming a real external business.
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