TLDR
- TRON trades just below a 7-year breakout level at $0.28, showing a textbook Volatility Contraction Pattern
- The network processed $694.54 billion in USDT transfers during May 2025, with whales accounting for 59% of volume
- TRX forms a symmetrical triangle pattern on shorter timeframes with potential breakdown target at $0.2434
- TRON now leads all blockchains in USDT supply and transaction volume, surpassing Ethereum
- Technical indicators show weakening momentum with RSI below 50 and declining trend strength
TRON is approaching a critical technical juncture after seven years of price compression. The cryptocurrency trades at $0.2704, hovering just beneath a breakout zone that analysts say could trigger a major move.
The price action shows a Volatility Contraction Pattern forming below the $0.28 neckline. This level dates back to 2018 and represents years of accumulated resistance.
Each price dip has grown smaller over time. Each bounce has become tighter. The compression creates conditions for a potential breakout.
Analyst Disrupt Yourself points to this multi-year structure as rare for major altcoins. A break above $0.28 could open targets at $0.45 and $0.65.
good to see one of the OGs knocking on the door of it’s ATHs $TRX $TRON just below a >7 yr neckline that formed a VCP during the history of this large cap coin pic.twitter.com/5rrQkphwor
— Disrupt Yourself (@EasychartsTrade) June 6, 2025
The TRX/DXY pair shows similar compression inside a long-term descending wedge. This pairing has tested resistance multiple times over several years.
$TRX / $DXY – somehow I’ve never posted this ratio. pic.twitter.com/I1G5hUOBLP
— Silverbark #fixourmoney #silversqueeze (@Silverbark3) June 9, 2025
Relative Strength Index on this pair displays bullish divergence from oversold levels. The pattern suggests TRON could gain strength against the dollar.
Network Activity Drives Fundamentals
TRON processed $694.54 billion in USDT transfers during May 2025. Whale wallets sending transactions over $1 million accounted for $411.2 billion of this volume.
The network handles over 2.4 million USDT transfers daily. This activity has pushed TRON ahead of Ethereum in both USDT volume and supply.
USDT supply on TRON grew from $58 billion to $79 billion in six months. Average daily volume reached $23.7 billion in May.
TRX transfer volume hit 490.3 billion tokens in May, valued at $121.2 billion. This reflects increased usage across decentralized applications.
The Treasury Department projects the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028. TRON’s infrastructure positions it as a key player in this growth.
Short-Term Patterns Show Caution
Despite the long-term bullish structure, shorter timeframes reveal different signals. TRX formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 1-hour chart following a sharp decline on June 11.
The triangle typically breaks in the direction of the previous move. A breakdown could target $0.2434, representing a 10% decline from current levels.
The Directional Movement Index shows weakening trend strength. The Average Directional Index fell to 18.04, indicating a fading trend.
The gap between buying and selling pressure has narrowed. This reflects indecision between market participants.
RSI remains below 50 at 44.85, suggesting weak momentum. The indicator has failed to break above the neutral line since the June 11 decline.
TRX trades below its 200-period exponential moving average on the 4-hour chart. However, it maintains an ascending channel structure with clear support levels.
Weiss Crypto noted TRON’s resilience, stating it “didn’t even have a bear market last cycle.” This strength contrasts with typical crypto market cycles.
The current price action combines long-term compression with short-term uncertainty. Volume remains relatively low during the triangle formation.
Technical analysts watch for a definitive break above or below current levels. A move above $0.28 could confirm the multi-year breakout scenario.
TRON’s network activity continues to grow with over $400 billion in whale transfers monthly and daily transactions exceeding 2 million.
