After a week of CPI prints, resilient jobs data, and green candles that felt way too exciting for a bear tape, the big question was simple:
Was the bounce off ~$60K the move… or just another pause before continuation lower?
TL;DR
In this episode of Trading Spaces:
- BTC is battling a major confluence zone: the 2021 all-time high and the weekly 200 EMA.
- Den’s lean: if forced to choose, lower eventually — but likely via grind and chop, not straight-line panic.
- A weekly close above the 2021 ATH + 200 EMA would strengthen the case for one more bounce leg.
- ETH looks structurally weaker and more “range-like” this cycle, making it harder to build conviction.
- If BTC loses structure, typical bear deviations suggest a move into the mid-to-high $50Ks is plausible.
- Alt strength is selective — MONAD and HYPE stand out, but news pumps (UNI) are still getting sold fast.
- Macro remains the swing factor. CPI was mildly constructive; PCE next week could shift tone again.
Macro: slightly better inflation, but no real catalyst
Matt framed the macro backdrop as conflicted — not catastrophic, but not inspiring either.
What we got this week:
- Jobs data showed the US economy remains resilient → not supportive of imminent rate cuts.
- Core CPI came in slightly below expectations → a small nudge toward the “inflation cooling” narrative.
- Market pricing still implies no meaningful rate cuts before summer, barring something dramatic.
The problem? Even when data comes in “okay,” the broader risk tone feels fragile.
AI disruption headlines. Mega-cap volatility. Capex debates. Geopolitical overhang.
Matt’s takeaway: upside catalysts are scarce in the near term, while downside landmines are plentiful. In that kind of tape, breakouts need real fuel — and that fuel just isn’t obvious yet.
Bitcoin: 2021 ATH + 200 weekly EMA = the battlefield
Den zeroed in immediately on the level that matters most right now:
The 2021 all-time high, which coincides almost perfectly with the weekly 200 EMA.
That’s not just a random horizontal. That’s structural.
Her framing:
- If BTC closes the week above this zone and holds it, there’s room for a controlled push higher.
- But overhead resistance isn’t far — April lows and prior range highs sit close.
- If forced to choose direction? She’d lean lower eventually, but more likely as a grind than a collapse.
This isn’t a clean trend environment. It’s a level-to-level market.
Upside targets (if reclaim holds):
- Conservative.
- Think previous April 2025 (~$76K) and November 2025 (~$84K) lows rather than euphoric expansion.
Downside map:
- In prior bears, BTC has often deviated 25–40% below the 200 weekly EMA before final basing.
- That math places potential downside into the mid-to-high $50Ks.
- A deeper tail scenario exists, but that’s conditional — not a prediction.
Den’s tone was clear: this is not a “load the boat” moment. It’s a “wait for confirmation” moment.
Time > price (again)
One recurring theme:
Major bottoms are usually a time game, not a price game.
Fast drops create fear. Fast bounces create hope. But real regime transitions usually involve:
- Boredom
- Range compression
- Participation drop-off
- Emotional exhaustion
Right now, we’re still very much in the “everyone is watching every tick” phase.
That’s not typically how durable bottoms form.
Ethereum: structurally different, structurally weaker
ETH was the tougher segment of the episode.
Den’s main observation:
BTC has a relatively repeatable cycle structure. ETH doesn’t, this time.
Instead of clean cycle expansion and new highs, ETH has behaved more like a range asset:
- Brief move above prior highs.
- Immediate rejection.
- Lower highs and sliced supports.
- Heavy overhead structure to reclaim.
The June lows are the key battlefield. Below that, there’s a notable gap before the mid-$1,500s become relevant again.
Den’s stance wasn’t dramatic — just cautious.
Could ETH bounce if BTC stabilizes? Yes. Does it currently offer clean, compelling structure? Not really.
Matt added a broader point: it’s hard to justify sustained alt exposure when ETH — a major pillar — looks this fragile.
Alts: isolated strength only
Alt season? Not in this tape.
Den and Matt both agreed: strength is isolated and tactical for now.
MONAD: constructive structure
MONAD has shown clean relative strength.
Den liked the earlier breakout-and-retest structure — especially as EMAs flipped bullish on lower timeframes.
But she was honest:
“This is not my preferred environment. I’m a trend trader — and I don’t see a wave I can ride for long before it hits resistance.”
In a bear tape, even strong charts can get pulled under if BTC rolls.
UNI: textbook sell-the-news
UNI provided the cautionary tale.
Strong headline. Big green candle. Immediate reversal.
In stronger markets, that type of news can extend for days. Right now? It barely held for hours.
That speaks volumes about risk appetite.
HYPE: the “best of the worst”
HYPE remains one of the few relative outperformers.
But Den’s criteria are strict:
- She wants a clean break and hold above prior highs.
- Without acceptance above that level, it’s just pressing into heavy resistance.
- Rejection there risks turning the move into a deviation rather than continuation.
Relative strength is interesting. Absolute structure still counts.
What matters next
Two big things:
- Weekly close on BTC
- Above 2021 ATH + 200 EMA → bounce continuation scenario gains credibility.
- Rejection → downside grind likely resumes.
- PCE next week
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
- A negative surprise could quickly cap risk appetite again.
Process over prediction
Den made an important distinction late in the episode:
You can prepare for scenarios. You don’t need to predict six months out.
That means:
- Mark your levels.
- Define invalidation.
- Keep targets conservative in counter-trend trades.
- Don’t treat a bounce like a new bull market.
This is a tape where patience is a position.
Want the full story and a deeper dive? Catch the full episode of Trading Spaces:
Final read
Base case:
- Bounce potential exists.
- Structure remains fragile.
- Chop is likely.
- Lower is still on the table unless macro materially improves.
As Den put it: if we hold and build above key reclaim levels, there’s room to breathe. If not — we’ll see you lower.
Stay close to @krakenfx, @krakenpro, and @Dentoshi for clips and the next episode.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Kraken or its management.
The post Trading Spaces recap: pivotal reclaim or another grind lower? appeared first on Kraken Blog.
