DAILY CONQUEST #101
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Overview
- Critical week in Macro.
- Markets: BTC volatility reaches all-time lows.
- FTX to upgrade its crypto exchange.
- Brazilian companies buy BTC at record levels.
Good morning Fam,
It’s an important week for the markets with a bundle of critical economic data set to release, including CPI on Thursday.
The macroeconomic landscape remains shaky for markets after last week’s job data was hotter than expected. Unemployment fell to 3.5% versus an expected 3.7%, increasing certainty that the Federal Reserve will continue its hawkish policy.
The jobs update increased the probability of a 75-point basis hike to 76%, according to the CME
FedWatch tool.
The FOMC minutes, a wrap-up of the Fed’s meeting will be released on Wednesday after the US market closes and will provide inside information on the Fed’s current thinking. The release will likely have mild effects on the market unless the minutes show some highly unexpected data.
Thursday is the big day for the latest Core Price Index (CPI) numbers to reveal the current inflation in the US. With an escalating situation in Ukraine and the price of oil increasing because of OPEC policy, the probability inflation has reduced significantly is low. But for this reason, max pain is to the upside, and a lower-than-expected print could produce a short squeeze. On the other hand, if inflation comes in higher than the expected 8.1% YoY, then further downside becomes a high probability.
CPI YoY, MoM — October 13 at 08:30a EST.
BTC/USDT 1D
Price continues to straddle the $19k support level as BTC volatility hits all-time lows. The VOL could signal an aggressive short-term move that will likely depend on CPI on Thursday. BTC completed the daily candle down -1.58% to $19,131.
High-resolution chart
GMX/USDT 1D
One of the hottest protocols in crypto, GMX, is currently testing its upward trendline support after reaching a high of $65 after Binance listed the token. If you remain bullish on GMX, watch for a rejection of the current support level for a continuation of the uptrend. GMX completed the daily candle down -9.74% to $41.10.
High-resolution chart
NDAQ/USD 1D
The NASDAQ (NDAQ) ticker, which aggregates the top tech stocks in the US, is currently testing a crucial support level (green) in a massive triangle pattern. If NDAQ fails to hold the support, a visit to the $48 lows seems probable. On the other hand, if the price remains above the level, then a retest of the downtrend line resistance (red) seems likely in the next 30–50 days.
High-resolution chart
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FTX V2 is set to release in November. The crypto exchange giant run by Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) will upgrade its network to version 2 on November 21 with an improved matching engine and many other features. According to SBF, the throughput of orders will double with the upgrade.
A Record number of crypto purchases by Brazilian companies. According to the country’s tax authority, over 12,000 Brazilian companies purchased crypto in August. The companies hold an estimated $2.1 billion in crypto.
News tidbits:
- Coinbase secures Singapore permit.
- A Portuguese proposal would enact taxes on crypto transfers and capital gains.
- Uniswap warp’ed to StarkNet
NFT & metaverse update 🐵
- Formula One files eight Web3 trademarks for NFTs and a metaverse.
My five cents…
Like the previous four months, market action remains closely tied to economic data. Until macro begins to improve (Ukraine war de-escalation, inflation decrease), the markets will be very dependent on CPI and the Federal Reserve’s reactive measures.
So, unfortunately, it’s more of the same for now.
Although, there is one positive. With a high degree of short market positions, max pain remains to the upside. So if factors surprise and improve, the market is well set up for a short-squeeze scenario.
Gabriel M.
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