TLDR
- CPI inflation data release on Tuesday will be closely watched by investors amid trade tensions
- Walmart, Cisco, Take-Two Interactive among companies reporting earnings this week
- U.S.-China trade talks continue as markets react to recent tariff developments
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak Thursday after criticism from President Trump
- Retail sales and consumer sentiment data will provide insights into consumer spending patterns
This week brings a packed economic calendar that could shake up financial markets, as investors digest key inflation data, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve speeches against a backdrop of evolving trade tensions.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report arrives Tuesday, giving markets their first look at April’s inflation picture. This follows March’s unexpected drop to 2.4% and will be carefully analyzed as the Fed contemplates its interest rate path.
Trade relations remain front and center after weekend meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials in Switzerland. Market participants are watching these discussions closely, hoping for signs of easing tensions between the world’s largest economies.
Several Fed officials will speak throughout the week. Chair Jerome Powell takes the spotlight Thursday, with his comments under extra scrutiny after recent criticism from President Donald Trump regarding the Fed’s interest rate policy. Other speakers include Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governors Christopher Waller and Michael Barr.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Trump says the “guy in the Fed” should lower interest rates, adding, “I think I understand interest a lot better than him.” pic.twitter.com/4UPgWFtp66
— Crypto Briefing (@Crypto_Briefing) April 30, 2025
Thursday’s retail sales report for April will reveal if consumer spending patterns are shifting. Recent data shows shoppers rushing to purchase items before new tariffs take effect. This comes as consumer sentiment surveys indicate growing concerns about the economic outlook.
Consumer Spending Trends
The preliminary May reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index arrives Friday. This widely watched survey has shown declining sentiment in recent months as Americans worry about how the administration’s tariffs might impact prices.
Tuesday brings the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, offering perspective from the small business sector. These sentiment indicators help forecast consumer and business spending, which drives much of the U.S. economy.
Housing market data includes the homebuilders’ confidence survey Thursday and housing starts figures Friday. These reports will highlight inventory trends during a period when housing scarcity has worsened affordability problems for many Americans.
Additional economic data includes Thursday’s Producer Price Index, showing inflation at the wholesale level, and Friday’s import and export price figures. Monday’s federal budget report will update government debt levels, a topic of growing concern for some market watchers.
Earnings Season Continues
The corporate earnings calendar features several major companies that could move markets. Walmart reports Thursday before market open, with investors eager to hear how the retail giant is handling tariff impacts. Its previous earnings showed better-than-expected results but included a cautious outlook.
Tech sector earnings include Cisco Systems on Wednesday and semiconductor manufacturer Applied Materials on Thursday. Cisco saw higher revenue last quarter driven by AI-related orders, while Applied Materials previously warned about potential sales impacts from chip export restrictions.
Video game maker Take-Two Interactive reports Thursday as excitement builds for its upcoming Grand Theft Auto release. Agricultural equipment maker Deere & Co. also reports Thursday, providing insights into farm sector conditions.
Chinese e-commerce companies reporting include Alibaba, JD.com, and Tencent Music Entertainment. Nuclear power startup Oklo, backed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, reports Tuesday as investors watch its potential to meet energy demands for AI infrastructure.
Last week saw market indexes end their winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.16%, the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, and the Nasdaq-100 dropped 0.20% for the week. The S&P 500 ended its nine-day winning streak on Monday as investors took profits ahead of the Fed meeting.
Technical Analysis
Analyst Trader Edge has highlighted bearish divergence on the E-Mini S&P 500 — a signal that may indicate the current bullish momentum is fading. This could suggest a potential pullback next week.
Bearish divergence on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures $ES
This could be a sign that the bullish momentum is starting to weaken 📉$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/KlcfpGQOPl
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) May 9, 2025
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its meeting last week, pointing to increased uncertainty related to tariffs and maintaining its patient approach. Powell’s statement that the economy remains in a “solid position” helped calm some market concerns and triggered a rebound.
Market sentiment improved following news of a U.S.-U.K. trade agreement – the first since the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2. However, despite renewed dialogue with China, investors recognize that a quick resolution to trade tensions is unlikely.
Reports indicate the Trump administration has identified around 20 countries for early trade negotiations, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. This suggests a lengthy process as global trade relationships undergo major changes.
