TLDR
- Solana (SOL) price has rallied approximately 30% from its April 7 low of $95 to around $125
- On-chain data shows a major whale recently sold 274,188 SOL, locking in $11 million in realized losses
- Supply clusters around $140 represent key resistance with 27.8 million SOL (4.75% of circulating supply) concentrated there
- Open Interest in SOL futures jumped 13.89% to $5.23 billion, indicating fresh leveraged exposure
- Solana’s ecosystem shows positive activity with rising transaction volume and active addresses up 15% to 28.13 million
Solana has experienced a strong rebound from recent lows, climbing approximately 30% from its April 7 low of $95 to reach $125. This recovery comes amid mixed signals from both on-chain data and ecosystem activity.
SOL Price
The current rally has brought renewed optimism to SOL holders, but caution remains warranted as several indicators suggest potential resistance ahead. The price movement occurs against a backdrop of active ecosystem development and meme coin resurgence within the Solana network.
On-chain data reveals concerning whale behavior that may impact SOL’s continued upward momentum. A major holder recently liquidated 274,188 SOL at an average price of $108, realizing an $11 million loss based on their initial cost basis of $148.
Key Resistance Levels
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) identifies three major supply clusters for Solana – around $100, $120, and $140. The $140 zone appears particularly critical, with over 27.8 million SOL concentrated at this level, representing approximately 4.75% of the total circulating supply.
This concentration creates a substantial resistance barrier, as many holders at this level are either near breakeven or facing unrealized losses. Should SOL approach this threshold, increased selling pressure could emerge as investors seek to exit positions.
Between $117 and $120, another 38 million SOL sits clustered, creating a potential area for profit-taking as prices move through this range. These supply zones suggest that price volatility may continue until SOL tests and potentially breaks through the $140 level.
Derivatives Market Activity
The recent 7.07% daily upswing positions Solana as the leading top-tier asset in recovery velocity. This rally shows strength in both spot and derivatives markets, with Open Interest jumping 13.89% to $5.23 billion, indicating fresh leveraged exposure entering the market.
While this increased interest might appear bullish at first glance, it also introduces market fragility. The combination of active whale distribution and Short-Term Holders (3–6 months) remaining in capitulation territory creates conditions for potential liquidation cascades.
Should Solana fail to maintain its upward momentum, a long squeeze could trigger sharp downside movements, especially as funding rates begin to skew positive. The recent breach of the $117-$120 supply zone further compounds this risk.
Ecosystem Strength
Despite price concerns, Solana’s network activity shows positive trends. The blockchain processed over 350 million transactions in the past week, representing a 4.8% increase from the previous period. Active addresses have jumped by 15% to over 28.13 million, demonstrating growing user engagement.
Decentralized exchanges on Solana have handled over $14 billion in transaction volume over the past week and $46 billion in the last month. Major platforms like Orca, Raydium, and Pump have driven much of this activity.
The Solana meme coin sector has shown particular strength. Tokens like Fartcoin (+81% weekly), Popcat (+57% weekly), Gigachat, Goatseus Maximus, Fartboy, and Vine have all posted strong gains. Their combined recovery has pushed the total market capitalization of Solana meme coins above $7.02 billion.
From a technical perspective, Solana has formed a falling wedge pattern, which often signals a bullish reversal. Both the Relative Strength Index and MACD indicators have been rising this week, supporting the case for continued upward movement.
Should this bullish scenario play out, the next key level to watch is $150, representing a potential 20% gain from current prices. However, a drop below $110 would invalidate this outlook and potentially signal renewed bearish momentum.
For traders navigating this volatile market, the $140 supply zone remains the crucial level to monitor. A successful break and hold above this threshold could trigger a bullish rotation driven by FOMO and market greed. Until then, the rally appears more characteristic of a temporary relief phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
In summary, while Solana’s price has rebounded impressively from recent lows, structural challenges remain before a full recovery can be confirmed. Traders should watch whale behavior, supply zones, and derivatives activity for clues about SOL’s next major move.
