The crypto market downturn has been particularly hard on leading American exchange Coinbase (COIN), which has seen its stock plunge more than 50% since bitcoin’s early October record above $126,000, including a 27% decline in 2026 alone.
Attempting to catch up to that fast tumble, JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington slashed his price target on COIN to $290 from $399 ahead of the company’s fourth quarter earnings report coming after the close on Thursday.
Worthington remains a bull on the stock and his reduced target still suggests 75% upside from COIN’s current price of $1655.
Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, down from $801 million in the third quarter. That would mark a sharp drop from prior quarters, driven mainly by lower trading volumes, weaker crypto prices and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances, he said.
Worthington estimates spot crypto trading volume of $263 billion for the quarter. He also pointed to lower USDC in circulation, modeling stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million. Those headwinds were partially offset by a full quarter of contributions from Deribit, the crypto derivatives exchange Coinbase acquired in August.
Including Deribit, JPMorgan models total transaction revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing about $117 million on an estimated $586 billion in trading volume. In the previous quarter, the exchange reported $1 billion in transaction revenue.
On the subscription and services side, the bank expects revenue of $670 million, below Coinbase’s prior guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting softer crypto prices, lower staking yields and slower USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to come in below guidance as the company reins in costs.
Other sell-siders weigh in
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish said his estimates sit roughly 10% below consensus on adjusted EBITDA, driven by weaker retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue. “We are notably lower on retail trading revenues, based on read-throughs from Robinhood, and blockchain rewards revenues,” Budish wrote, adding that consensus estimates may not yet fully reflect publicly available volume data.
Barclays estimates Coinbase exchange volume of about $261 billion in the quarter. He said Robinhood’s (HOOD) reported retail crypto volumes, which have historically tracked closely with Coinbase’s, fell about 15% quarter over quarter.
Compass Point struck a more bearish tone. Analyst Ed Engel said he is negative on the stock into earnings, expecting disappointment in the subscription and services segment. “While investors place a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect 4Q results to affirm overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices,” Engel wrote. He also expects January trading revenue to reflect what he described as Coinbase’s weakest retail engagement since the third quarter of 2024.
Beyond the headline numbers, investors are likely to focus on commentary on trading activity early in 2026, the sustainability of USDC-related income, and whether newer initiatives, such as Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business, can meaningfully offset swings in spot crypto markets.
