FOMC minutes (March 17–18 meeting) — April 8, 2026
The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its March 17–18 meeting on Wednesday. Two days later, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes March CPI. Taken together, these two releases offer the most complete picture yet of how the Fed is thinking about inflation. With the April 28–29 FOMC meeting now in scope, and a major leadership transition at the Fed approaching, both data points carry more weight than a typical mid-cycle read.
The Federal Open Market Committee publishes its meeting minutes three weeks after each decision. Today’s release covers the March 18 decision, at which the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75%.
What makes this release materially different from a routine minutes drop is context. The March meeting took place as oil prices were climbing sharply in response to the Middle East conflict, and Powell’s subsequent press conference signaled elevated uncertainty about how much of that shock would feed into sustained inflation.
Traders are also reading this through the lens of the leadership transition. Powell’s term expires in May, and Kevin Warsh’s confirmation remains pending. If the minutes signal internal disagreement about the pace of any future easing, that divergence becomes more significant when the chair may be changing hands before the next meeting. Historically, FOMC minutes releases have produced distinct reactions in rate-sensitive assets when the committee’s internal language diverges from the post-meeting statement. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, all USD-denominated pairs.
US CPI — March 2026 data — April 10, 2026
Friday’s Consumer Price Index release covers March and will be the first inflation print to fully capture the period following the oil-price spike that accompanied the Middle East conflict. February CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year, with energy contributing meaningfully to the monthly rise.
The question traders are asking is whether March data reflects a one-time energy-driven spike that the Fed will look through, or whether it shows broader price stickiness building in services and shelter. The Fed’s March projections maintained a median forecast of one cut in 2026, but seven committee members now project zero cuts. A hot March print adds pressure to that already cautious posture.
If March CPI comes in materially above February’s pace, markets may read it as reducing the probability of any cut at the April 28–29 meeting or beyond. If it comes in line with or below expectations, traders may reassess how much of the energy shock is contained. Either scenario creates a defined reaction window around the 8:30 a.m. ET release. Scenario framing carries genuine uncertainty — the data will resolve what the minutes can only hint at. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, all major pairs, spot and margin.
Goldman Sachs Q1 earnings — April 13, 2026 |
JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings — April 14, 2026
Major US bank earnings arrive mid-week, flanking the PPI release. Goldman Sachs reports Monday before the open; JPMorgan reports Tuesday alongside PPI data.
Goldman is the most watched pure-play investment banking signal. Its Q4 2025 results showed a four-year high in its deal backlog, and its Q1 2026 print will tell markets whether the M&A revival that began late last year is holding into a higher-oil, higher-uncertainty environment. JPMorgan’s call will carry macro weight beyond its own results. Dimon’s framing of consumer credit conditions and his tone on the oil shock’s economic impact have historically influenced broader risk positioning.
For crypto-specific context: JPMorgan disclosed a Coinbase partnership last year, and Goldman’s asset management division has been active in digital asset product development. The tone of both calls, particularly any guidance on institutional appetite for risk assets, is worth monitoring alongside the macro data from earlier in the week.
Relevant markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, spot and futures.
BTC/ETH CME monthly options expiry — April 24, 2026
CME’s monthly Bitcoin and Ether options expire on the last Friday of each month. April’s expiry falls on April 24, four days before the FOMC meeting. Monthly expiries carry less notional value than quarterly settlements, but they still create a localized window where positioning and hedging activity concentrates. This cycle is notable because the expiry sits directly before the FOMC decision and TOKEN2049 Dubai, meaning traders may be adjusting derivatives exposure ahead of multiple catalysts in quick succession.
Relevant markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, BTC and ETH futures on Kraken Pro.
CLARITY Act — Senate Banking Committee markup (targeted: late April)
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is the most significant piece of US crypto legislation awaiting action. The bill, which passed the House in July 2025, would establish a formal SEC/CFTC jurisdiction split for digital assets and create a rule-based regulatory framework to replace the enforcement-first approach of recent years.
The Senate Banking Committee is targeting a markup in the second half of April, following its return from Easter recess on April 13. The primary sticking point, whether crypto platforms can pay yield on stablecoin balances, is reportedly close to resolution, but the text has not yet been finalized. An agreed markup date has not been officially announced.
This is not a scheduled event with a confirmed date. Traders watching the legislative calendar should note that any committee action, or failure to act, before the end of April could move exchange-related and stablecoin-sector assets meaningfully. The bill’s regulatory implications are structural rather than immediate, but legislative milestones have historically produced sharp short-term reactions in the assets most directly in scope. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, broad crypto market.
Tier 3 events
Paris Blockchain Week (April 15–16): One of Europe’s largest crypto gatherings. Watch for ETF-related announcements, protocol partnership news, or signals from European regulators that may be timed to the conference. US Retail Sales — March data (April 21): Rescheduled from April 16; will provide the first demand read covering the period following the oil-price spike.
Closing context
This is a week where macro and crypto-specific catalysts overlap directly. FOMC minutes and CPI arrive before the major bank earnings, meaning traders are likely to walk into Q1 results already processing fresh signals on rates and inflation. Add the CME options expiry and the regulatory backdrop of the CLARITY Act, and this is a week that rewards structured thinking over reactive positioning. Know what’s scheduled, know what’s in scope, and use the tools available to you before events land.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk.
