Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, has opined that the $60,000 level likely marks the bottom of the current market cycle.
Timmer argued that the crash to the aforementioned level fulfills the “support zone” he predicted months ago.
“Finally, Bitcoin fell to $60k last week, which is in the support zone that I suggested a few months ago when I wrote that another 4-year cycle bull market had likely ended,” Timmer wrote.
According to the analyst, the previous bull cycle has officially concluded, and a period of consolidation is underway.
The “shallow” winter
Timmer believes that the recent drop actually shows that Bitcoin is now a mature asset.
He is convinced Bitcoin’s volatility is dampening as it becomes more institutionalized.
Even though the crash was rather brutal, the floor is significantly higher than in past cycles.
“A decline to ‘only’ $60k would be relatively shallow for a Bitcoin winter, but as the commodity currency matures, its ups and downs should become less dramatic,” he said.
Calling the bottom
Timmer appears to be confident that the worst of the selling is likely over. The next accumulation phase is expected to set the stage for a new bull run.
“It’s anyone’s guess whether $60k is the low, but my guess is that it is, and that after a few months of backing and filling, the next cyclical bull market will get underway.”
Timmer pointed to technical models as the basis for his optimism.
“Based on the mathematical harmony of past cycles, which of course are not a guarantee of future cycles, my sense is that any future waves could eventually take us to new highs.”
Undefeated gold
Timmer also pointed to the divergence between “digital gold” and physical gold during the recent volatility. Bitcoin caved to heavy liquidation pressure, but traditional gold proved its mettle as a safe-haven asset during the liquidity crunch.
“While both silver and Bitcoin took it on the chin last week (at least until Friday), gold held in like a champ,” Timmer observed.
