TLDR
- Ethereum mirrors the Dow Jones 1980 bull run pattern, suggesting a final surge to $8,000
- ETH has gained 51% in July 2025, reaching seven-month highs near $3,800
- Institutional buyers withdrew over $1.18 billion worth of ETH from exchanges this month
- Technical analysis shows ascending triangle formation with $4,000 resistance level
- ETF inflows reached $5.5 billion with nearly $1 billion flowing in during the past week
Ethereum has surged to seven-month highs near $3,800, posting a 51% gain in July 2025. The rally has caught the attention of analysts who see striking similarities between ETH’s current price structure and historic market patterns.
Analyst Gert van Lagen identified what he calls a “textbook expanding diagonal” formation in Ethereum’s chart. This broadening megaphone pattern has provided support for ETH’s major rallies since mid-2022, including a 245% surge from November 2022 to February 2024.
The pattern bears a strong resemblance to the Dow Jones hourly chart from 1980, which followed an expanding diagonal before reaching its peak. Van Lagen suggests Ethereum is now in the fifth and final wave of this bull market cycle according to Elliott Wave theory.
#Ethereum is poised to complete its 2019–2025 Bull Market with a textbook Expanding Diagonal as Wave v.
Each subwave within this structure is corrective. The current and final wave up is expected to break out of the Wave 3–4 megaphone pattern, completing Wave a, followed by a… pic.twitter.com/wvwAQbwXAy
— Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen) July 19, 2025
This final phase typically represents the most volatile stage of a bull run. Price action becomes unpredictable as momentum accelerates and late buyers enter the market.
ETH currently trades midway between the pattern’s upper and lower bounds. The token rebounded from the lower trendline in March and now eyes a potential run toward the upper trendline near $8,000 by early 2026.
Institutional Demand Drives Exchange Outflows
On-chain data reveals strong institutional interest in Ethereum. More than 317,000 ETH, valued at over $1.18 billion, have been withdrawn from exchanges during July alone.
Lookonchain reported that two wallets linked to institutional players purchased 58,268 ETH worth $212 million. This aggressive accumulation trend reflects growing expectations for further price increases.
Analyst Aaryamann Shrivastava noted that strong demand paired with low exchange supply creates ideal conditions for a sustained rally. The combination of whale accumulation and declining exchange balances has provided fundamental support for ETH’s price movement.
SharpLink has continued its accumulation strategy, now holding 157,140 ETH valued at nearly $493 million. The company’s continued investment reinforces growing corporate interest in Ethereum’s long-term value proposition.
Technical Analysis Points to Breakout
Ethereum is testing the apex of a multi-year ascending triangle pattern on monthly charts. This structure has been bounded by rising support and a flat $4,000 resistance level since 2018.
Previous rejections occurred at this level in 2021, 2022, and 2024. A convincing breakout and monthly close above $3,800 would confirm the triangle’s maturity and unlock upside potential.
The triangle’s horizontal resistance zone sits between $3,900 and $4,150. A breakout above this range could trigger a measured move toward $7,150, representing about 80% gains from current levels.
On shorter timeframes, ETH remains within an ascending channel with strong support at $3,610. This level is backed by the 20 EMA and Parabolic SAR indicators, providing technical confirmation of the uptrend.
Analyst Mark Newton of Fundstrat highlighted the technical confluence around the $4,000 mark. He suggests that a close above this level could see Ethereum march toward $10,000 before year-end.
Wall Street figures have joined the bullish chorus. Tom Lee of Fundstrat predicts Ethereum could reach between $10,000 and $15,000 by the end of 2025.
His firm BitMine has accumulated over $1 billion in ETH since July 9, becoming one of the largest corporate holders. Lee describes Ethereum as the “stablecoin engine” of the crypto ecosystem.
Real Vision’s Andreas Larsen cited shifting institutional focus from Bitcoin to Ethereum. He believes Ethereum is having its “macro moment” as institutional interest grows.
Ethereum ETF inflows have reached $5.5 billion since last summer. Nearly $1 billion has flowed into these products over the past week alone, with BlackRock’s ETHA ETF seeing particularly strong interest.
The current Ethereum staking yield averages above 4%, adding incentives for long-term holders. As staking becomes integrated into institutional products, analysts expect Ethereum’s supply to tighten further.
Ethereum active addresses grew by 9% in the previous week, with network activity increasing steadily. This growth has reignited discussion about a potential “flippening” where Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin in market cap.
Final Thoughts
Ethereum price continues to show strong upward momentum, supported by institutional demand and technical patterns pointing to a potential surge toward $8,000. With growing institutional interest and ETF inflows, Ethereum’s outlook remains bullish, with some analysts predicting further gains toward $10,000 or beyond by the end of 2025.
