TLDR
- Ethereum has struggled below the $2,000 level since March 11, 2025
- Technical indicators like CMF and Bulls/Bears metrics suggest rising buying pressure
- Historical patterns from 2017 and 2020 show similar setups before major rallies
- ETH is currently retesting a 5-year support trendline that has triggered past recoveries
- Upcoming catalysts like the Pectra upgrade could fuel a potential rebound
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has struggled to reclaim the $2,000 threshold since dropping below it on March 11. This marks the first time ETH has traded under this price level since December 2023.
Despite the recent weakness, multiple technical indicators and historical patterns suggest that a recovery may be on the horizon. The current situation has drawn attention from analysts who point to similarities with previous market cycles.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator currently shows positive readings, suggesting that buying pressure is increasing. This metric measures the flow of money in and out of a cryptocurrency.
When CMF readings remain positive, it often means sellers are losing control. This reduced selling pressure makes it less likely that ETH will drop toward the $1,500 level that some analysts had predicted.
Bullish?
On-chain data also paints a hopeful picture. The Bulls and Bears indicator, which tracks addresses buying and selling at least 1% of total trading volume, shows that bulls now outnumber bears.
This shift in market dynamics indicates that buying pressure is rising. If this trend continues, ETH may avoid another price correction and instead start moving upward.
Looking at the 4-hour price chart, ETH is currently trading within a descending triangle pattern. The price has held above the horizontal support line, which is a positive sign.
DON’T BE THE GUY WHO SOLD $ETH AT THE BOTTOM!
Ethereum is repeating its historical cycle.
Capitulation before the biggest run-up yet! pic.twitter.com/Xwfx02qq2W
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) March 16, 2025
Another bullish signal comes from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which has turned positive. This suggests growing momentum that could help push ETH’s price higher in the near term.
If these bullish indicators hold true, Ethereum could climb to $2,187 in the short term. With increased buying pressure, the price might even reach $2,520.
However, analysts warn that if ETH fails to break through the upper trendline of the triangle pattern, the bullish outlook might not materialize. In this scenario, the price could fall back to $1,762.
Historical patterns offer additional reasons for optimism. Several analysts have noted that ETH’s current price action mirrors patterns seen in 2017 and 2020, both of which preceded major bull runs.
Ethereum is oversold.
The weekly Stoch RSI is indicating that a bounce is likely to come soon.
I’m accumulating. pic.twitter.com/wD92xaHSZO
— TraderPA (@Trader1PA) March 17, 2025
The 2017 pattern showed a five-wave accumulation phase before ETH surged 50x in value. A similar structure appears to be forming in 2025, suggesting another strong move could be imminent.
Ethereum is also currently retesting a five-year support trendline that has marked major cycle bottoms in the past. This includes the March 2020 crash and the post-FTX collapse in 2022.
Each time ETH has touched this long-term trendline, it has bounced back with force. If history repeats, this current retest could set the stage for another upward move.
2020 Cycle
Another interesting comparison comes from the 2020 market cycle. After the COVID-19 crash, ETH formed a pattern similar to what we’re seeing now, before launching into a rally that eventually took it to an all-time high above $4,800.
The weekly Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) also suggests ETH is oversold at current prices. When the fast line crosses above the slow line in the oversold zone, it often signals an upcoming rebound.
Ethereum faces headwinds from decreased transaction volumes and growing competition from other Layer-1 blockchains like Solana. These factors have contributed to ETH’s 40% drop in market cap since the start of 2025.
However, upcoming catalysts could reignite interest in Ethereum. The Pectra upgrade and potential Wall Street expansion may drive new capital into the ETH market.
Sentiment around Ethereum has reached extremely bearish levels, which contrarian investors often view as a signal that the market may be near a bottom. As one analyst put it, the eventual reversal could become “the most hated rally ever seen in crypto.”
For ETH to maintain its recovery hopes, the price must stay above $1,861 and eventually retest the $2,227 level. Failure to hold these levels could lead to further price drops.
As of March 18, 2025, Ethereum trades at $1,911, showing a slight 0.9% increase over the previous 24 hours. The coming weeks will likely determine whether ETH can break its downtrend and begin a new upward cycle.
