The market is getting ready for a proper move toward values that were previously lost; however, the buy-side volume we had is nowhere near the threshold needed to see prices like $3 for XRP, $4,000 for Ethereum and $120,000 for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s face-melting fakeout
The recent price movement of Bitcoin is being characterized as one of the year’s most disastrous fakeouts, which has essentially dashed short-term bullish expectations and reset market sentiment generally. BTC is now plunging back toward $111,000, a level that is perilously close to inciting a more significant market correction after what at first appeared to be a strong breakout above the $115,000 resistance turned into a vicious reversal.
More than just wiping out recent gains, this fakeout has destroyed momentum that had been accumulating since early October. Following the swift rejection of the breakout attempt at the 50-day EMA, Bitcoin has since dropped below the 20- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a pronounced loss of directional strength. This signals to traders the end of what might have been a long-term rebound after weeks of sideways consolidation.
It is a gloomy setup technically. The 200-day EMA, which is the next significant support, is located close to $108,000. This level could determine whether Bitcoin continues on its long-term upward trajectory or begins a protracted decline. Trading volume has increased, indicating that panic selling is taking place, and the RSI indicator is currently trending close to 42, indicating weakening buying pressure.
Despite Bitcoin’s reputation for resilience, this catastrophic move highlights how brittle its structure still is. A series of liquidations occurred on major exchanges as a result of the rejection at $115,000, which not only rendered the prior breakout invalid but also trapped many long positions.
The prospects for Bitcoin’s price recovery are now seriously jeopardized due to the thinning liquidity and ongoing macro uncertainty. In the short term, the market might be looking at another leg lower, possibly toward $100,000, unless Bitcoin can recover and hold above $114,000.
This fakeout serves as a sobering reminder that in the world of Bitcoin, even the most promising rallies can turn violently around in a single daily candle, shattering hopes.
Confidence in Ethereum plummets?
The official loss of Ethereum’s hold on the $4,000 mark indicates a sharp drop in investor confidence and increasing market uncertainty. After momentarily recovering from the crash last week, ETH has once again dropped below the psychological barrier and is currently trading close to $3,980, a level that puts it in a precarious position as all technical indicators turn bearish.
Since ETH has been rejected close to the 50-day EMA and has failed to hold above the short-term resistance line, the situation is now framed as critical. At about $3,540, the asset is just above the 200-day EMA (black line), which serves as the final structural support prior to a possible more significant correction. Ethereum might move toward the $3,300-$3,400 range, a region of historical accumulation, if it were to cleanly break below that level.
Ethereum might be able to regain the $4,000 zone, though, in one of two recovery scenarios. The first and more likely is a technical bounce from the 200 EMA, which is fueled by short-term overselling. The RSI is currently trading close to 43, indicating that the market is getting close to exhaustion on the downside. The price of Ethereum may rise to $4,200 if buyers intervene, turning $4,000 back into support.
A liquidity-driven push would be necessary for the second, more viable scenario, which would probably be brought on by fresh capital inflows into altcoins or a wider Bitcoin stabilization above $115,000. By doing so, ETH would be able to retest and possibly break the $4,300 resistance, reestablishing the bullish structure of the midterm.
However, Ethereum is still in a troublesome limbo right now — too weak to support a breakout but not weak enough to confirm a complete breakdown. The $4,000 loss may signal the start of a more extensive retracement phase for the second-largest cryptocurrency unless one of these recovery triggers occurs soon.
No chances for XRP?
Even though the recent crash brought XRP down to almost $2.40, the answer may surprise those who think the trend is purely bearish. Investors are once again asking the same question after one of the most turbulent weeks on the cryptocurrency market: can XRP reach $3 again in 2025?
In actuality, XRP’s market behavior has always flourished on volatility rather than steadiness. For this asset, a sharp decline followed by an abrupt recovery is not uncommon. As liquidity resets and traders reposition for the next big swing, historical data actually indicates that XRP’s strongest rallies are frequently preceded by sudden volatility.
The market’s recent drag, particularly the widespread liquidation of high-leverage positions, has now reduced the amount of speculative pressure, making way for a more orderly natural move. If the change in sentiment continues, XRP may return to the $3 level, especially if it is able to recover and stay above the 200-day EMA at $2.70.
In terms of technical analysis, that is the main resistance area that divides stagnation from recovery. If the asset gains traction above this level, whales and momentum traders might reenter, increasing upside volatility, which is exactly what XRP needs to survive.
Further market cycles suggest that overnight reversals are the real character of cryptocurrency growth. Seldom is it predictable or linear. As has been observed innumerable times, without obvious macro triggers, sentiment can shift from hopelessness to euphoria in a matter of hours.
Thus, despite the fact that XRP may appear weak today, history indicates otherwise. It could be abruptly pushed back to $3 or higher in 2025 by the same forces that pulled it down. The market is volatile, and XRP, more than any other significant altcoin, serves as a reminder to investors that cryptocurrency recovery is rarely gradual but rather explosive.
