TLDR
- Analysts raise approval odds for Solana, XRP, and Litecoin ETFs to 95% with final SEC decisions expected by October
- Bloomberg ETF specialists predict a wave of new crypto ETFs in the second half of 2025
- REX Osprey Solana Staking ETF launches Wednesday as America’s first staked crypto ETF after regulatory compromises
- Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera, and Avalanche ETFs given 90% approval odds for Q4 decisions
- SEC continues delays on Ethereum staking decisions and Osprey Bitcoin Trust approval
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart raised their approval predictions for several altcoin exchange-traded funds to 95%. The increase applies to spot ETFs for Solana, XRP, and Litecoin, up from their previous 90% estimate.
The analysts shared their updated forecasts in a Monday post on X. They expect final SEC decisions on these three altcoin ETFs by October 2025.
“We expect a wave of new ETFs in the second half of 2025,” Seyffart said. The pair also gave 95% odds for approval of an ETF based on a basket of crypto assets.
Here are mine and @EricBalchunas‘ most recent odds on spot crypto ETF approvals by the end of 2025. We expect a wave of new ETFs in this second half of 2025. pic.twitter.com/H3pxJhqMy3
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 30, 2025
A crypto basket ETF could receive approval as early as this week according to the analysts. The timing represents a faster track compared to individual altcoin ETFs.
The analysts maintained 90% approval odds for several other altcoin spot ETFs. These include Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera, and Avalanche with final decisions expected in the fourth quarter.
ETF applications from Canary Capital received lower probability ratings. The analysts gave Sui ETF approval 60% odds and Tron ETF approval 50% odds.
First US Staked Crypto ETF Launches
The REX Osprey Solana Staking ETF officially launches Wednesday as the first US ETF to allow crypto staking. Bloomberg reported the launch follows months of regulatory discussions with the SEC.
The product initially faced objections from the SEC after clearing registration. The main regulatory concern centered on whether the ETF qualified as an investment company under securities laws.
To secure approval, the issuers agreed to invest at least 40% of assets in other exchange-traded products. Most of these ETPs are domiciled outside the United States.
The Solana staking ETF represents a new product category in the US crypto ETF market. Previous Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs do not include staking features.
SEC Delays Continue
The SEC delayed its decision on whether the Bitwise spot Ether ETF could include staking capabilities. The regulator has not yet approved any Ethereum staking features for US ETFs.
The agency also pushed back its decision on approving the listing and trading of Osprey Bitcoin Trust shares. These delays continue a pattern of extended review periods for crypto ETF products.
In June, Balchunas predicted a potential “altcoin ETF summer” while Seyffart suggested broad crypto index ETFs might gain approval in July. The timeline has since shifted to the second half of 2025.
The SEC faces multiple deadlines for crypto ETF decisions through October 2025. Current filings cover individual cryptocurrencies and basket products from various issuers.
