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Dogecoin’s six-month consolidation is a coil, not a coffin, according to the pseudonymous technician Cantonese Cat, whose 19 June video marshals multiple time-frame evidence to argue that the meme-coin’s next directional break will be up—potentially as far as $4.13 before the current cycle tops out.
Dogecoin Breakout Is Only A Matter Of Time
The analyst begins by addressing sentiment. Retail comment threads have turned caustic, he notes, because price has slipped from last autumn’s spike and then “done nothing for months.” Yet such fatigue is precisely what bull-market retracements are meant to produce: “A lot of people are getting really bitter about Doge … that’s exactly how higher highs and higher low type situations are supposed to get you all frustrated. This is still a bull trend until proven otherwise.”
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At the highest zoom level, Dogecoin is tracing what he calls “still a cup and … still a handle until proven otherwise.” The first thrust of that handle halted almost exactly at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the 2022–24 bear range—“a very important fib level here.” Because initial attempts rarely pierce that resistance, he expected rejection. What matters is where the pullback found support: “In the case of Dogecoin, it decided to go all the way down to 0.382, which is nothing unusual … this is actually a pretty important zone of this nice Adam-and-Eve double bottom.” The market is therefore testing, not violating, an historically powerful neckline.
Zooming to the monthly chart, Dogecoin sits beneath what the analyst calls “a pretty thick Ichimoku cloud.” Two breakout attempts have failed, producing a pair of wicks that look ominous to casual chart watchers. Cantonese Cat disagrees: “We had a little bit of a false breakout here on the monthly … I think a third time is going to be the charm.” Beneath the cloud, six consecutive monthly candles have nested entirely inside the tall green bar printed last November. He interprets the formation—six inside bars—as latency building for a violent move: “You’re talking about consolidation with six inside candles forming a lot of energy here.”
That compression is mirrored on the weekly time frame: “If you also look at the weekly here, you can also see that you have six inside candles over here too … that tells me that there is not much bearish energy necessarily left anymore. I think we’re closer to the bottom than the top.”
Key structural support is supplied by a rising 20-month simple moving average, now at $0.1737. Price currently ticks below it, but the slope is still positive. Historically, such combinations resolve in favour of the trend: “If you have a 20-month moving average that is up-sloping, most likely this is just going to be a wick.” He cites an earlier cycle when Dogecoin wicked beneath the same metric before staging a dramatic reversal.
Price action, he argues, is meaningless without context. “If I end up looking at Doge here on Coinbase and I pull up the volume here, you can also see that there is no selling volume here at all.” Binance, the world’s deepest Dogecoin market, shows identical inertia. “The selling volume is essentially non-existent,” he says, concluding that supply overhang has vaporised and only demand is required to propel a reversal. Twice before—in July 2023 and February 2024—identical volume droughts preceded V-shaped rallies: “Low selling volume over here, reversal once volume comes in … low selling volume over here, reversal once volume comes in.”
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Daily-chart oscillators are beginning to corroborate the structural read. Dogecoin has just registered what Cantonese Cat labels a “treasure bottom”—his term for a localised capitulation whose candle body is far smaller than its wick. More formally, the relative-strength index has exhibited bullish divergence: price has etched lower lows while RSI turns higher. “Last time when you have some bullish diversions was right here … that was the local bottom right there,” he says, pointing to the October 2023 reversal. The pattern repeated in March 2024 and appears again today: “I think that we might be experiencing a trend change here relatively soon.”
DOGE Price Targets
Should volume arrive and price claw back through the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements, Cantonese Cat’s Fibonacci ladders flag successive targets. From the Binance dataset, “$1.60, $2.26 and $4.13, all of these are possibility for Dogecoin.” A composite feed of multiple exchanges tweaks the numbers to $1.50, $2.27 and $3.94. What he does not foresee is a reprise of 2021’s parabolic blow-off, when Dogecoin tagged the 2.272 extension and briefly suggested a trajectory towards $23. “I think that $23 doge is insane … I don’t think that doge is going to end up becoming, you know, like anything like $3 trillion market cap.” A quarter- to half-trillion-dollar capitalisation, however—roughly the price zone between three and four dollars—remains “something to think about” given current monetary expansion.
Cantonese Cat interprets the community’s malaise as a contrarian gift: “The market makers are giving us more time to buy while the sentiment is extremely, extremely poor.” Inside-bar ranges serve as a simple trigger. A close above the six-month range high would, in his reading, unlock the primary up-trend’s next leg. Conversely, a close below the 20-month average might delay—but not necessarily invalidate—the thesis, provided the moving average itself keeps rising.
Across every lens—the macro cup-and-handle, the Adam-and-Eve neckline test, Ichimoku resistance, 20-month moving average support, volume exhaustion, daily bullish divergence—the weight of evidence converges on a bullish outcome. Timing, he concedes, is unknowable: “When is that going to be? I don’t know.” Yet none of the data justify capitulation. He closes with the maxim he repeats three times in the broadcast: “The trend is your friend, and the trend is up.” If that view holds, Dogecoin’s dormant coil may eventually unwind toward the analyst’s most ambitious extension at $4.13—a level unthinkable to today’s demoralised sellers, and precisely for that reason, he argues, still within reach.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.171.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
