In a new essay titled “Group of Fools,” Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, casts a critical eye over recent macroeconomic developments and their implications for the crypto market. Hayes, known for his direct and often provocative commentary, employs a blend of technical analysis, central banking critique, and currency market insights to build a case for what he believes is the return of a Bitcoin and crypto bull market.
A “Group Of Fools”
He begins by emphasizing the significance of the dollar-yen exchange rate as a macroeconomic barometer. According to Hayes, this metric crucially influences global financial stability and policy decisions. “The dollar-yen exchange rate is the most important macroeconomic indicator,” he asserts.
Hayes revisits his earlier proposal for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to engage in extensive dollar-for-yen swaps with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), a move he argues would empower the Japanese Ministry of Finance to bolster the yen through targeted interventions in the forex markets. Despite the theoretical benefits of this strategy, Hayes notes with a mix of irony and frustration that the G7 nations, which he refers to as the “Group of Fools,” have opted for a different route.
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The narrative then shifts to a critical examination of the G7’s central banking strategies. Hayes points out the stark discrepancies in interest rates among the major economies, with Japan maintaining a near-zero rate while other nations hover around 4-5%. He critiques the conventional wisdom that supports rate cuts as a tool to manage inflation, which universally targets a 2% rate among G7 countries, despite their diverse economic conditions.
“The G7 central banks—with the exception of the BOJ—have all raised rates aggressively in response to inflation spikes,” Hayes writes. However, he highlights yesterday’s unexpected rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank despite prevailing inflation trends, suggesting a deeper, unstated economic strategy aimed at bolstering the yen against a backdrop of geopolitical and economic tensions with China.
He describes this move as a cessation of what he terms “rate hike Kabuki theatre,” a maneuver he believes is designed to maintain the dominance of the Pax Americana-led global financial system.
Why The Bitcoin And Crypto Bull Run Returns
It is in this context that Hayes pivots to the implications for the crypto market. Looking ahead, Hayes turns his gaze to the crypto markets, suggesting that these recent shifts signal a fortuitous environment for investment in digital assets. Hayes speculates that the coordinated actions of central banks to adjust interest rates downward, despite high inflation, are setting the stage for increased liquidity in global markets, which traditionally benefits riskier assets like Bitcoin and subsequently altcoins.
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“The June central banking fireworks kicked off this week by the BOC and ECB rate cuts will catapult crypto out of the northern hemispheric summer doldrums. This was not my expected base case. I thought the fireworks would start in August, right around when the Fed hosts its Jackson Hole symposium,” Hayes noted.
He argues that these monetary policy shifts are likely to ignite a bull market in Bitcoin and crypto, particularly as central banks appear to be entering a cycle of rate easing. “We know how to play this game. It’s the same game we have been playing since 2009 when our Lord and Saviour Satoshi gave us the weapon to defeat the TradFi devil. Go long Bitcoin and subsequently shitcoins.” Hayes declares, referencing the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin.
As the G7 meeting from June 13-15 looms, Hayes anticipates further developments that could influence global financial markets. He expects the communiqué from this gathering will likely address currency and bond market manipulations explicitly, or at least signal continued accommodative policies. Additionally, Hayes forecasts that despite conventional caution against policy shifts near major political events like the US presidential election, unusual circumstances might prompt unexpected moves.
Hayes concludes his essay by reinforcing his bullish stance on Bitcoin and crypto, driven by his analysis of G7 monetary policies and their impact on global exchange rates and financial stability. His call to action for the crypto community is to capitalize on these developments, positioning themselves for what he predicts will be a lucrative phase in the markets.
“For my excess liquid crypto synthetic-dollar cash, […] it is time to deploy it again on conviction shitcoins. […] But suffice it to say, the crypto bull is reawakening and is about to gore the hides of profligate central bankers,” Hayes concludes.
At press time, BTC traded at $71,200.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
