By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
After a brief rebound on Wednesday, BTC and the broader crypto market slipped back into the red on Thursday — despite the Fed minutes showing a bias towards more rate cuts. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) also fell over 1% to 4,163 points.
What’s behind the fresh stumble? Much of it likely comes down to the steady strength in the dollar index (DXY), which continues to dim the appeal of USD-denominated assets, including crypto.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown drags on, leaving traders in a holding pattern as they anxiously await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later Thursday for hints on policy direction, especially with fresh jobs and inflation data temporarily on pause.
In global news, early Thursday brought a glimmer of hope as President Trump announced a peace deal between Israel and Hamas with potential hostage releases by Monday, confirmed by Qatar media. Still, oil prices nudged slightly above $62, suggesting traders remain cautious about the durability of the agreement.
On the crypto front, solana digital asset treasury company Helius disclosed plans to acquire at least 5% of Solana’s supply, Coinbase launched decentralized exchange (DEX) trading within its app for U.S. users (except in New York), and Polymarket’s founder teased a possible launch of their native token, POLY.
Switching gears to traditional markets, gold held strong above $4,000, defying the dollar’s rally, while S&P 500 futures hovered flat near record highs. Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JP Morgan, told the BBC he is “far more worried than others” about the possibility of a major stock market drop in the coming months.
Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Oct. 9, 8 a.m.: Brazil Sept. headline inflation rate YoY Est. 5.22%, MoM Est. 0.22%.
- Oct. 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico Sept. inflation rate. Headline YoY Est. 3.79%, MoM Est. 0.27. Core YoY Est. 4.28%, MoM Est. 0.32%.
- Oct. 9, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims. Initial ((for week ended Oct. 4) Est. 223K, Continuing (for week ended Sept. 27) Est. 1930K. (Report delayed due to current federal government shutdown)
- Oct. 9, 8:30 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell delivers welcome remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Decentraland DAO is voting to replace the DAO Committee with a 3-of-5 multisig of ecosystem representatives, shifting execution-only duties while the Council retains oversight. Voting ends Oct. 10.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- Crypto exchange Binance has introduced Meme Rush, a platform designed for users to capitalize on a wave of Chinese-language memecoins.
- The platform taps directly into the memecoin craze by embedding early-stage meme token curation and trading inside its Wallet.
- It sources listings via community launch hubs (for example Four.Meme on BNB Chain), ranking by both on-chain volume and social traction, letting Binance capture speculative interest pre-DEX listing.
- Its built-in reward mechanics (4× Binance Alpha points) align user activity with monetization. The boom in Chinese-language memecoin projects on BNB Chain is amplifying hype and driving attention across the ecosystem.
- On PancakeSwap v2, daily trading volume recently hit $15.55 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, underscoring how active DEX memecoin markets remain.
- The majority of volume has taken place on lesser known memecoins like 币安Holder, which racked up around $1 billion in volume across 163,000 transactions.
Derivatives Positioning
- AVAX, ASTER, PUMP and XPL lead the decline in futures open interest in the past 24 hours. OI in BTC and ETH has dropped by 1% and 3%, respectively. These capital outflows likely stem from profit taking on longs.
- OI in USDT and USD-denominated BNB perpetuals listed on major exchanges continues to hover below its September peak, diverging bearishly from the rising spot price.
- Annualized perpetual funding rates continue to hover at or below 10% for most major tokens, a sign that the market remains healthy without any signs of froth.
- On the CME, positioning remains elevated in ether futures relative to bitcoin. OI in SOL futures hovers at a record high above 9 million SOL, with premiums falling to 13%, the lowest since early September.
- On Deribit, the story remains the same: BTC, ETH puts continue to trade at a premium to calls out to the December end expiry. Block flows over Paradigm featured risk reversals.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.84% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $121,875.74 (24hrs: -0.87%)
- ETH is down 11.10% at $4,005.03 (24hrs: -3.5%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.49% at 4,161.60 (24hrs: -1.63%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 4 bps at 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0054% (5.9141% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 98.90
- Gold futures are down 0.37% at $4,055.60
- Silver futures are down 0.45% at $48.78
- Nikkei 225 closed up 1.77% at 48,580.44
- Hang Seng closed down 0.29% at 26,752.59
- FTSE is down 0.45% at 9,506.23
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.11% at 5,655.94
- DJIA closed on Wednesday unchanged at 46,601.78
- S&P 500 closed up 0.58% at 6,753.72
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.12% at 23,043.38
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.5% at 30,501.99
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.17% at 2,873.25
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.2 bps at 4.129%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,801.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,324.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 46,887.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.38% (0.63%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03568 (-2.78%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,011 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $50.97
- Total Fees: 3.37 BTC / $414,551
- CME Futures Open Interest: 146,530 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 30 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.47%
Technical Analysis
- Ether has dropped to $4,350 from $4,750 in two days, invalidating the bullish breakout from the flag pattern.
- The failed breakout indicates that sellers have regained control, and the pullback could deepen in the coming days.
- The stochastic has turned sharply lower from above 80 or overbought reading, confirming the bearish case.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $387.27 (+3.06%), -1.6% at $381.07
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $150.46 (+1.17%), -1.12% at $148.77
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $41.39 (+4.57%), -0.8% at $41.06
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $67.41 (+3.55%), -1.5% at $66.40
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $20.2 (-0.25%), -0.89% at $20.02
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.99 (+2.42%), -1% at $21.77
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.53 (+2.51%), -0.11% at $17.51
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $18.98 (+5.68%), +0.47% at $19.07
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $55.38 (+3.75%), unchanged in pre-market
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.07 (+1.21%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $330.8 (+0.73%), -1.69% at $325.21
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.2 (-0.56%), +0.39% at $28.31
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.57 (-1.13%), -2.39% at $17.15
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $7.17 (+1.7%), -3.07% at $6.95
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.5 (+2.04%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $440.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.53 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.35 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $69.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $15.11 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.88 million
Source: Farside Investors
