The U.S. employment picture was far stronger than forecast in June, furthering Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s insistence on remaining patient with respect to easing monetary policy.
Nonfarm payrolls grew 147,000 last month, according to a report Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economist forecasts had been for job growth of 110,000. That’s also modestly up from May job growth of 144,000 (revised from an originally reported 139,000).
The unemployment rate for June was 4.1% versus an expected 4.3% and 4.2% in May.
The price of bitcoin
dipped modestly in the minutes following the report’s release to just under $109,000. Bitcoin had been on a steady climb higher in the days ahead of the report, topping $110,000 for the first time in about one month just hours ago.
U.S. stock index futures rose modestly after the data, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 each ahead by about 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked nine basis points to 4.36%.
Market participants are closely monitoring economic data for signals about the Federal Reserve’s next move. While there’s been some chatter from at least a couple of Fed officials about a July rate cut, Chairman Jerome Powell has remained insistent that the economy is in a good spot and the central bank can thus stay patient as it considers the need for monetary ease.
This stance has put him directly at odds with President Trump, who has been equally insistent that the Fed needs to cut now and in a sizable way.
Prior to the Thursday morning data, traders had placed 75% odds that the Fed would hold steady at its next meeting in late July, according to CME FedWatch. At the subsequent meeting in September, however, traders are pricing in a 95% chance of one or more 25 basis point rate cuts.
Fifteen minutes following the news, the odds for holding steady in July had soared to 95% and the chances of a September move had declined to 78%.
Checking other report details, average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in June versus expectations for 0.3% and May’s 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings were higher by 3.7% against forecasts for 3.9% and May’s 3.8%.
Today’s employment report was released a day early due to the July 4 holiday weekend, with the NYSE and Nasdaq closing at 1 p.m. ET and bond markets at 2 p.m. ET Thursday, while all U.S. markets will remain shut on Friday.
Weekly initial jobless claims were released as well on Thursday and are also showing strength, dipping to 233,000 from last week’s 237,000 and forecasts for 240,000.
