Bitcoin has disappointed investors this year, trailing both gold and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 stock index, despite expectations that it would benefit from fiat currency devaluation.
But according to a VanEck manager, the largest crypto asset could be setting up for a major comeback next year.
“Bitcoin is lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date, and that dislocation is setting it up to be a top performer in 2026,” said David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, in the firm’s recently published 2026 outlook.
While this year’s weakness reflects a softer risk appetite and tight liquidity, the thesis for bitcoin remains intact, Schassler wrote. “As debasement [currency devaluation] ramps, liquidity returns, and BTC historically responds sharply,” he added.
“We have been buying,” he said.
Schassler’s broader thesis centers on a powerful combination of monetary debasement, technological transformation and the rise of hard assets. The asset manager argues that funding future liabilities and political ambitions will increasingly rely on money printing, pushing investors toward scarce stores of value, such as gold and bitcoin.
He expects gold to surge next year to $5,000, extending its already impressive run a little more than 10% for current levels. “Gold is one of the strongest major assets this year, and we expect that momentum to carry it forward,” he said. The yellow metal is up over 70% this year, currently trading around $4,492 per ounce.
At the same time, a quiet bull market in natural resources is underway, fueled by the infrastructure demands of artificial intelligence, energy transitions, robotics and re-industrialization. These “old-world assets,” as Schassler put it, are building the foundation for the new world economy.
Read more: Gold, silver shine in debasement trade as bitcoin is left behind
