Bitcoin closed the highest ever monthly candle in recorded history. Every time this happened, bitcoin surged by hundreds of percentage points in the following weeks — so much so that even Peter Thiel regrets not buying more bitcoin earlier.
But what does the on-chain data tell us?
Let’s dig in.
Entrepreneur and venture capitalist Peter Thiel has stated that the increasing price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies shows that inflation concerns are real. Criticising the US Federal Reserve, the billionaire investor said that runaway inflation is a crisis moment that the central banks hasn’t acknowledged.
Check out the full article here!
For how long can BTC/USD be contained?
Bitcoin ended the month of October at the highest monthly close ever, exchanging hands at $61,400 on the close. Historically, every time btc closed an all-time high on the monthly chart, it has continued to rally hundreds of percent more. Indeed, the stage is set for an explosive year-end.
In terms of immediate prices, BTC/USD is locally contained between $59,000 and $67,000. Prices broke out of a falling wedge structure, which is technically bullish and suggests that the coin should rally to the top of the wedge.
However, while bullish structures inform the probabilities, there’s still a chance for the setup to fail. Since a breakdown of the structure would include a move below the 20-daily EMA, the next support of interest is the daily Super Trend, located at $56,360.
The support also coincides with the bottom of the wedge.
In trending markets, the super trend indicator tends to be tested multiple times, which either gives rise to a continuation of the trend or a dead cat bounce (and eventually a trend reversal).
Since it hasn’t been tested since starting in October, it can be relied on as somewhat of a floor price in case BTC/USD heads south.
Technical indicators on the daily time frame are mixed. The Stochastic RSI has printed a bullish divergence while the RSI meanders in bullish territory, with clear upside potential. At the same time, funding rates are ticking higher with a backdrop of open interest that stands at all-time highs (just under $25 billion according to bybt.com data).
Technically, an MTF (4-hour) loss of the $60,200 level is enough to suggest a further cool-off period. Now that a new month is upon us, one can’t rule out a shake out before BTC hits $70,000 and beyond.
That said, it’s vital to keep in mind that strong support rests below $60,000.
The mvrv-z score is used to assess whether bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its “fair value” price. When market value is significantly higher than the realised value (red zone), this was indicative of a market top (historically). The opposite indicates market bottoms (green zone).
Another market top indicator is the net unrealised profit and loss signal. It simply charts the difference between relative unrealised profit and relative unrealised loss for a specific asset.
At the time of publishing, the indicator is within the ‘belief-denial’ stage (green zone), suggesting that higher targets are not only possible but probable.
If BTC/USD is in a ‘double top’ 2013-style bull market, then the next few months will be noted forever in the history books.
Bitcoin is going mainstream. Crypto is following close by and all macro signs point to that direction. We’ve been covering both the technical data and newsworthy events for years now. The crescendo moment is upon us.
Catch you later.
p.s. This is my opinion. You can have your own opinion.
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