TLDR
- Nike (NKE) stock rose 5% Thursday to about $37.19 and was trading near $37.50 on Friday.
- Volume ran 87% above average, and call buying was 27% above normal as traders left AI names.
- A Barron’s columnist turned bullish, citing record volume and a $50 target by mid-2027 if $33.75 holds.
- Last quarter, EPS beat at $0.48, but revenue fell 4% and Greater China sales dropped 22%.
- Analysts rate the stock “Reduce” with an average price target of $41.07.
Nike (NKE) stock traded around $37.50 on Friday. That follows a 5% jump on Thursday, when it hit $37.19 after closing Wednesday at $35.30.
The stock reached $37.73 at the high. About 46.3 million changed hands, 87% above the daily average.
Traders were rotating out of AI names and into beaten-down consumer stocks. Lululemon moved up too, so the bounce may be sector-wide bargain hunting.
Options traders leaned bullish. They bought 181,646 calls, about 27% above the usual daily volume.
A Long Slide With Early Signs of a Bottom
Barron’s columnist Doug Busch turned bullish on the stock. Nike is down 79% from its November 2021 record, and he sees early signs of a bottom.
He points to the week ending Oct. 2, when Nike fell over 5% but printed a spinning top candle. Volume was the highest weekly level in nearly 40 years.
October is also shaping up as a hammer candle on the monthly chart. Volume is on pace for the second-highest month since May 1997.
On the weekly chart, the stock sits below its 50-week moving average near $50, which has capped rallies since early 2022. Rejections in December 2023, June and October 2024, and December 2025 led to drops of 8% to 22%. The articles give no RSI or MACD readings, so momentum signals are not covered here.
Busch stays bullish above $33.75 and sees a move toward $50 by mid-2027, a 35% gain. What to watch: a drop below $33.75 would weaken the bottoming case, while a hold above it keeps the base intact.
The Numbers Still Look Tough
Nike reported on Oct. 1. EPS was $0.48 versus $0.43 expected, but revenue of $11.21 billion missed the $11.32 billion estimate.
Revenue fell 4.3% from a year ago, and Greater China sales dropped 22%. FY 2027 EPS guidance is $1.15 to $1.35.
Analysts lean cautious. Of 39 ratings, one is Strong Buy, seven are Buy, 21 are Hold and 10 are Sell, with an average target of $41.07.
Several firms cut targets after earnings. UBS went to $34 from $42, and Stifel to $36 from $40, while HSBC moved to $40 from $48 in September.
Bernstein kept an outperform rating with a $45 target. Williams Trading cut Nike to hold from strong-buy.
The dividend is $1.64 a year, a 4.4% yield, after 24 straight annual raises. The payout ratio is 78.85%, and some investors question whether free cash flow covers it.
Consumer discretionary is the weakest S&P 500 sector this year, down 4.5%. Nike is down about 40% in 2026, while Crocs is up 46%.
Insiders sold $600,126 of stock over the last three months. Nike has a market cap of $55.23 billion.
Nike was trading around $37.50 on Friday, and bulls want it to stay above $33.75.
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