XRP is on track to break the bear market’s broader structure, heading for a third consecutive monthly close in the green as per historical data. For this cryptocurrency, such a streak is a rare signal: extended runs like this seldom occur during periods of market uncertainty and often precede a strong, sustained bullish trend in the crypto market.
After falling 22.1% in June, XRP steadily recovered, signaling that buyers were taking control. July brought a modest 2.11% gain, August added 30%, and the token is now up 8.67% for September, trading around $1.5060.
The current optimism is backed by concrete regulatory developments.
What does the SEC have to do with it? (Spoiler: the infrastructure is already in place)
Yesterday, September 28, 2026, an updated 424B3 prospectus for a spot XRP ETF was filed with the SEC. The document disclosed commercial details: Coinbase Custody was named the fund’s custodian, and the fee for investors will be just 0.34%. This is not the regulator’s final decision, but it is a clear sign that the infrastructure is ready for the fund to issue shares, strengthening the case for institutional inflows.
The technical chart suggests that large orders and the defense of long-term levels are behind the rally. This summer, XRP found a “concrete floor” at $1.2646, a major moving average where the RSI recorded a clear buy signal in the form of a bullish divergence, confirming a trend reversal.
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The token is now testing resistance at $1.5411. A sustained move above it would open the way to the psychological level of $2.3000, the 2025 peak.
The only restraining factor is historical seasonality. October has traditionally been XRP’s worst month, with an average return of -5.14%. The coming days will show whether institutional interest in the ETF can overcome that pattern and bring the bear market cycle to a definitive end.
