A major change has taken place in the Bitcoin market: its main long-term support level, the 200-week moving average (200WMA), has officially risen above $65,000.
Blockstream CEO Adam Back drew attention to this milestone by sharing a new chart from Look Into Bitcoin. The market’s mathematical “floor” has reached a new all-time high, climbing from $64,000 in August to its current level in just one month.
Anatomy of Bitcoin’s new floor: How the market’s key indicator works and how much Bitcoin is worth today
The 200WMA reflects Bitcoin’s underlying long-term trend by averaging its price over the past four years, equivalent to one full market cycle. It filters out daily noise and speculation entirely.
Historically, this indicator has served as an absolute price floor. Even during the harshest bear markets, Bitcoin has fallen below it for only a few weeks and only during periods of major global economic shocks. The continuous upward movement of this line shows that the asset’s structural baseline is rising faster than in previous cycles.
The move above $65,000 gives Adam Back and other supporters of this model solid mathematical grounds to conclude that Bitcoin may never again trade below $65,000 for an extended period.
The situation at this threshold can be compared with Charlie Munger’s principle of acquiring a first-class asset at its true historical cost.
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While the long-term foundation continues to strengthen, the current spot market is holding steady. Bitcoin is trading firmly within the $76,000–$77,000 range, maintaining a substantial buffer above the support line. This price gap confirms that long-term holders are consistently absorbing selling pressure well above the historical baseline.
If the current trend continues, the chances of seeing Bitcoin at $60,000 or $64,000 are minimal, as cycle mathematics makes such a scenario unlikely.
