Bitcoin has produced an unusual on-chain signal that has apparently never appeared before in nearly two decades of available data, according to prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo.
Woo has spotted what he describes as an “anomaly” in Bitcoin’s HODL Wave dataю “We have an ANOMALY,” Woo wrote on X.
According to the analyst, whoever accumulated Bitcoin around the bottom appears to have done so gradually instead of buying aggressively during a short period.
“Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale,” Woo said.
Widespread accumulation has historically produced clear spikes in Bitcoin’s youngest HODL Wave bands. “When it’s many investors, you expect to see spikes in buying activity. That’s happened every time across 17.5 years of Hodl Wave data except now,” Woo explained.
One whale behind the bottom?
HODL Waves divide Bitcoin’s circulating supply according to how long coins have remained unmoved.
The youngest bands are particularly useful for detecting recent buying activity because newly acquired coins initially appear there before gradually moving into older age bands if they remain dormant.
If those coins remain untouched, they move into older HODL Wave categories. If they are spent again, they return to the youngest bands.
Normally, a Bitcoin bottom accompanied by broad investor participation would therefore create conspicuous bursts of activity in these short-term waves. This time, however, such spikes are missing.
Hence, it is possible that this is due to a very large investor, or a relatively small number of entities, quietly accumulating Bitcoin.
Not jumping to conclusions
The single-whale explanation remains only Woo’s interpretation.
He has acknowledged that other factors could explain it, including ETFs, institutional custody, derivatives, and so on.
Bitcoin’s market structure has changed dramatically since HODL Wave data first became available.
Bitcoin remains on shaky ground
As reported by U.Today, the leading cryptocurrency recently slipped below the psychologically important $77,000 level on Thursday.
Bitcoin has since bounced from Thursday’s lows, but the market remains fragile due to the high possibility of an incoming rate hike.
There is a major derivatives expiry scheduled for Friday. According to Coinbase Markets, approximately $2.51 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire. BTC accounts for the overwhelming majority of the total.
